Dengue is a major public health problem worldwide. Although several drug candidates have been evaluated in randomized controlled trials, none has been effective and at present, early recognition of severe dengue and timely supportive care are used to reduce mortality. While the first dengue vaccine was recently licensed, and several other candidates are in late stage clinical trials, future decisions regarding widespread deployment of vaccines and/or therapeutics will require evidence of product safety, efficacy and effectiveness. Standard, quantifiable clinical endpoints are needed to ensure reproducibility and comparability of research findings. To address this need, we established a working group of dengue researchers and public health specialists to develop standardized endpoints and work towards consensus opinion on those endpoints. After discussion at two working group meetings and presentations at international conferences, a Delphi methodology-based query was used to finalize and operationalize the clinical endpoints. Participants were asked to select the best endpoints from proposed definitions or offer revised/new definitions, and to indicate whether contributing items should be designated as optional or required. After the third round of inquiry, 70% or greater agreement was reached on moderate and severe plasma leakage, moderate and severe bleeding, acute hepatitis and acute liver failure, and moderate and severe neurologic disease. There was less agreement regarding moderate and severe thrombocytopenia and moderate and severe myocarditis. Notably, 68% of participants agreed that a 50,000 to 20,000 mm3 platelet range be used to define moderate thrombocytopenia; however, they remained divided on whether a rapid decreasing trend or one platelet count should be case defining. While at least 70% agreement was reached on most endpoints, the process identified areas for further evaluation and standardization within the context of ongoing clinical studies. These endpoints can be used to harmonize data collection and improve comparability between dengue clinical trials.
These findings highlight the ongoing coexistence of both arboviruses, a distinct clinical profile of each condition in the study area that could be used by clinicians to generate a differential diagnosis, and the presence of underreporting, mostly among hospitalised cases.
According to the World Health Organization, 98% of fatal dengue cases can be prevented; however, endemic countries such as Colombia have recorded higher case fatality rates during recent epidemics. We aimed to identify the predictors of mortality that allow risk stratification and timely intervention in patients with dengue. We conducted a hospital-based, case-control (1:2) study in two endemic areas of Colombia (2009-2015). Fatal cases were defined as having either 1) positive serological test (IgM or NS1), 2) positive virological test (RT-PCR or viral isolation), or 3) autopsy findings compatible with death from dengue. Controls (matched by state and year) were hospitalized nonfatal patients and had a positive serological or virological dengue test. Exposure data were extracted from medical records by trained staff. We used conditional logistic regression (adjusting for age, gender, disease's duration, and health-care provider) in the context of multiple imputation to estimate exposure to case-control associations. We evaluated 110 cases and 217 controls (mean age: 35.0 versus 18.9; disease's duration pre-admission: 4.9 versus 5.0 days). In multivariable analysis, retro-ocular pain (odds ratios [OR] = 0.23), nausea (OR = 0.29), and diarrhea (OR = 0.19) were less prevalent among fatal than nonfatal cases, whereas increased age (OR = 2.46 per 10 years), respiratory distress (OR = 16.3), impaired consciousness (OR = 15.9), jaundice (OR = 32.2), and increased heart rate (OR = 2.01 per 10 beats per minute) increased the likelihood of death (AUC: 0.97, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 0.99). These results provide evidence that features of severe dengue are associated with higher mortality, which strengthens the recommendations related to triaging patients in dengue-endemic areas.
A B S T R A C TBackground: Genetic risk factors for dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS) and dengue fever (DF) are limited, in particular there are sparse data on genetic risk across diverse populations. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in a derivation and validation sample of 7, 460 participants of Latin American, South Asian, and South East Asian ancestries. We then developed a weighted polygenic risk score (PRS) for each participant in each of the validation cohorts of the three ancestries to predict the risk of DHF/DSS compared to DF, DHF/DSS compared to controls, and, DF compared to controls. Findings: The risk of DHF/DSS was significantly increased, odds ratio [OR] 1.84 (95%CI 1.47 to 2.31) (195 SNPs), compared to DF, fourth PRS quartile versus first quartile, in the validation cohort. The risk of DHF/DSS compared to controls was increased (OR=3.94; 95% CI 2.84 to 5.45) (278 SNPs), as was the risk of DF compared to controls (OR=1.97; 95%CI 1.63 to 2.39) (251 SNPs). Risk increased in a dose-dependent manner with increase in quartiles of PRS across comparisons. Significant associations persisted for PRS built within ancestries and applied to the same or different ancestries as well as for PRS built for one outcome (DHF/DSS or DF) and applied to the other.
GP levels was associated to some of the manifestations of dengue. This finding suggests that the intensity of oxidative stress can influence the clinical presentation of dengue.
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