The aim of this paper is to analyse the hypothesis of convergence in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in Latin America in the period 1950-2010 through the nonlinear coefficients model variants of a single factor in the time proposed by Philips and Sul (2007). This approach has the virtue of being extremely flexible to model a significant amount of transition paths to convergence; besides, it does not requires an assumption about the non-stationary of the series of the panel of analysis. We found evidence of relative convergence to four groups or clubs of countries, when the series of GDP per capita have not been filtered, and we have not found evidence of convergence when the series are previously filtered through the Hodrick-Prescott filter, except for Bolivia and Nicaragua. These results can be construed into evidence that groups of countries in a region are subject to common external shocks more than a process of convergence between them.
This paper analyzes the hypothesis of regional convergence in Mexico for the period of 1970-2012, through a non-linear growth model. The methodology combines three approaches: the panel-data threshold autoregressive (tar) model, the unit root tests in panel and the computation of the critical values by bootstraping simulation. The empirical results of the nonlinear model applied to the per capita gdp of different groups of states in Mexico suggest that the proposed model is superior to the linear model and show evidence of partial and absolute convergence for the group of the eleven "richer" states in certain sub-periods. Keywords: economic growth; regional convergence in Mexico; non-linear unit root tests in tar models; panel-data threshold autoregressive (tar) models. ResumenEste trabajo analiza la hipótesis de convergencia regional en México para el periodo 1970-2012 por medio de un modelo de crecimiento no lineal. La metodología empleada combina tres enfoques: el modelo panel autorregresivo de umbral (tar, threshold autorregresive), las pruebas de raíces unitarias en panel y el cálculo de los valores críticos a través de simulación bootstraping. Los resultados empíricos del modelo no lineal aplicado al pib per cápita de distintos grupos de estados de la república mexicana sugieren que el modelo propuesto es superior al modelo lineal y muestran evidencia de convergencia parcial y absoluta para el grupo de las 11 entidades "más ricas" en ciertos subperiodos.Palabras clave: crecimiento económico, convergencia regional en México, pruebas no lineales de raíces unitarias en panel.
En el presente artículo se estudian los spillovers (derrames) entre el S&P500 y el Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano para verificar si el inicio de la epidemia por COVID-19 y el entorno de ese momento cambiaron la dinámica de su nivel de conectividad. Usando la metodología propuesta por Diebold y Yilmaz se estimaron y analizaron índices de spillovers, desde y hacia, los mercados de Estados Unidos y del Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano. Los resultados confirman la existencia de spillovers provenientes del S&P500, sin que hayan sido mayores que los que se presentaron durante los años previos a 2020, con excepción del mercado mexicano, que recibió una mayor influencia. Los resultados pueden ser útiles para orientar decisiones de financiamiento e inversión en los mercados bursátiles de la región en el Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano.
This paper assesses the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita convergence of the 32 Mexican States in the period 1940-2010 through the method proposed by Pesaran (2007), which is based on the convergence stochastic criterion. One of the main advantages of this method is not only on a model of leading economy, also on a pair-wise approach that considers all possible gap pairs of per capita logarithms of all the Mexican States analyzed in the sample. According to this method, all the differences or output gaps of the States must be stationary around a constant mean. Most results provide evidence against the hypothesis of convergence especially for the total sample from 1940 to 2010 and the first period from 1940 to 1985. However, mixed evidence of this hypothesis was observed in the second period from 1986 to 2010. Additionally, the test results applied to a set of States considered as the richest suggest these findings are not due to the unique behavior of these States.
This paper analyzes the impact of international oil price uncertainty on the different economic sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) in Mexico in the period 1993:1–2020:4 through a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean to capture the impact of oil volatility on economic growth at the sectoral level of economic activity. The results show that the uncertainty of the international price of oil has a differentiated effect on the different sectors of economic activity in Mexico since it does not influence the primary sector; it negatively impacts the secondary sector, and there is mixed evidence in the tertiary sector. Additionally, evidence is provided that both positive and negative shocks to the international oil price have asymmetric effects at the sectoral level in Mexico. The results highlight the need to implement public policies, at the country level, that help mitigate the effect of uncertainty in the oil market and promote economic stability at the sector level.
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