Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate-change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem.

Neotropical seasonally dry forests (NSDFs) are widely distributed and possess high levels of species richness and endemism; however, their biogeography remains only partially understood. Using species distribution modelling and parsimony analysis of endemicity, we analysed the distributional patterns of the NSDF avifauna in order to identify their areas of endemism and provide a better understanding of the historical relationships among those areas. The strict consensus trees revealed 17 areas of endemism for NSDFs, which involve four large regions: Baja California, Caribbean–Antilles islands, Mesoamerica and South America. These well‐resolved clades are circumscribed by geographical and ecological barriers associated with the Gulf of California, the leading edge of the Caribbean plate, the Tehuantepec Isthmus, the Polochic–Motagua fault, the Nicaragua Depression, the Chocó forest, the Amazon basin and the Andean Cordillera. Relationships among groups of NSDFs found here suggest that evolution of their avifauna involved a mixture of vicariance and dispersal events. Our results support the idea of independent diversification patterns and biogeographical processes in each region, including those previously associated with the Pleistocene Arc Hypothesis for NSDFs of south‐eastern South America. This study provides a biogeographical framework to open new lines of research related to the biotic diversification of NSDFs.

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In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

Metal mining causes serious ecological disturbance, due partly to heavy metal (HM) pollution that can accumulate at mining sites themselves and be dispersed downstream as runoff. Plumage coloration is important in birds’ social and ecological interactions and sensitive to environmental stressors, and several local-scale studies have found decreased carotenoid-based plumage and/or increased melanin-based plumage in wild birds exposed to HM pollution. We investigated regional-scale effects of proximity to mines and their downstream rivers as a proxy of exposure to HM-contaminated mining waste on plumage coloration in Streak-backed Orioles (Icterus pustulatus) in south-central Mexico. We measured the plumage color of museum skins using reflectance spectrometry and digital photography, then used geographic information systems to estimate each specimen’s distance from the nearest mining concession and river and determine whether that river’s watershed contained mines. Proximity to mines and their downstream rivers was related to ventral (but not dorsal) carotenoid-based coloration; birds collected farther from mines had more vivid yellow-orange breast plumage, and belly plumage was more vivid and redder with increasing distance from rivers with upstream mines. Breast background reflectance unexpectedly decreased with mine distance and was higher among birds whose nearest river had mines upstream. The area (but not reflectance) of melanin-based plumage was also related to mines. The area of dark back streaks decreased with mine distance, while the bib patch was smaller among birds presumably more exposed to mining waste. While some of these results are consistent with predicted effects of HM pollution on plumage, most were not straightforward, and effects differed among plumage patches and variables. Further investigation is needed to understand the direct (e.g., toxicity, oxidative stress) and/or indirect (e.g., decreased availability of carotenoid-rich food) mechanisms responsible and their individual-, population-, and community-level implications.

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We studied the phylogeography and plumage variation of the Russet-crowned Warbler (Myiothlypis coronata), from Venezuela to Bolivia, with focus on populations from Ecuador and northern Peru. We analyzed sequences of mitochondrial and nuclear genes, geographic distributions, as well as photographs of specimens deposited at museum collections. Phylogenetic analyses identified three major lineages formed by populations from: Venezuela and Colombia (M. c. regulus), Ecuador and northern Peru (M. elata, M. castaneiceps, M. orientalis, M. c. chapmani), and central Peru and Bolivia (M. c. coronata). We found further population structure within M. c. regulus and M. c. coronata, and population structure and complexity of plumage variation within the Ecuador-northern Peru lineage. Time-calibrated trees estimated that most intraspecific variation originated during the Pleistocene; however, this pattern may not be attributed to an increase in diversification rate during that period. We discuss these results in the context of the importance of geographic-ecological barriers in promoting lineage diversification along the Andes and put forward a preliminary taxonomic proposal for major lineages identified in this study.