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Aim To analyse the distributional patterns of the Baja California Peninsula's resident avifauna, and to generate a regionalization based on a method that uses a parsimony analysis (parsimony analysis of endemicity, PAE) of point data and modelled potential distributions.Location The Baja California Peninsula, Mexico.Methods A data base was constructed containing records of 113 species of resident terrestrial birds present in the Baja California Peninsula. Records and localities were obtained from the literature and from specimens housed in scientific collections worldwide. Raw data points and potential distribution maps obtained using the software Genetic Algorithms for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), were analysed with PAE. ResultsThe data base consisted of 4164 unique records (only one combination of species/locality) belonging to 113 terrestrial resident bird species, in a total of 809 localities. From the point distribution matrix, the analysis generated 500 equally parsimonious trees, from which a strict consensus cladogram with 967 steps was obtained. The cladogram shows a basal polytomy and some geographical correspondence of a few resolved groups obtained in the analysis. These results do not allow the recognition of areas defined by avifaunistic associations. From the potential distribution matrix, the analysis generated 501 equally parsimonious trees, and a strict consensus cladogram of 516 steps was obtained. The cladogram shows a higher resolution because of the number of resolved groups with better geographical correspondence and therefore regions are well-defined.Main conclusions The correspondence of some groupings of species suggest their validity as areas with biogeographical (historical and/or ecological) meaning. This regionalization in the Baja California avifauna seems to be consistent with previous regionalizations for other groups. Hence, PAE is a useful tool for area categorization if reliable point records and prediction tools are available. Our results suggest that the geographical definition is much better using potential data generated by GARP, particularly when they are contrasted with the results from point data. Thus, this is an excellent alternative for developing biogeographical studies, as well as for improving the use of data from scientific collections and other sources of biodiversity information.

Conservation and management of species require basic knowledge on their geographic distribution and abundance. Here, we propose a novel approach, based on the theory of the ecological niche, to model the spatial patterns of the white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus population density in two regions of central Mexico (Balsas Basin and Tehuacán‐Cuicatlán Valley). We used an ecological niche model to generate binary geographic distribution maps of the white‐tailed deer in each region based on occurrence data and a set of environmental variables. Then, the centroid of the distributions was calculated in ecological space (niche centroid) and the multidimensional Euclidian ecological distance of each pixel to the niche centroid was estimated. Finally, for each region the distance to the niche centroid (DNC) was regressed against 14 independent occurrence points in each site containing white‐tailed deer density information to determine the function describing the DNC‐density relationship, which was used to generate maps describing the distribution of white‐tailed deer density. Our results indicated an inverse DNC‐density relationship in both regions (Balsas Basin: r2 = 0.90 and Tehuacán‐Cuicatlán: r2 = 0.76) that was validated via bootstrapping resulting in a predicting capacity of near 62% for Balsas Basin and 65% for Tehuacán‐Cuicatlán Valley. Our results suggest that the distance to the niche centroid method is a robust, science‐based correlative approach that resulted useful to predict the population density of the white‐tailed deer in a spatially explicit fashion. The proposed approach is suitable for predicting the distribution of density for white‐tailed deer for which occurrence data with accompanying density information exists, but relative abundance can also be estimated when no abundance data are available.

BackgroundMany authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico.Methodology/Principal FindingsEcological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence.Conclusions/SignificanceOur results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low).

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Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.

Pluralistic approaches to taxonomy facilitate a more complete appraisal of biodiversity, especially the diversification of cryptic species. Although species delimitation has traditionally been based primarily on morphological differences, the integration of new methods allows diverse lines of evidence to solve the problem. Robber frogs (Pristimantis) are exemplary, as many of the species show high morphological variation within populations, but few traits that are diagnostic of species. We used a combination of DNA sequences from three mitochondrial genes, morphometric data, and comparisons of ecological niche models (ENMs) to infer a phylogenetic hypothesis for the Pristimantis acuminatus complex. Molecular phylogenetic analyses revealed a close relationship between three new species—Pristimantis enigmaticus sp. nov., P. limoncochensis sp. nov. and P. omeviridis sp. nov.—originally confused with Pristimantis acuminatus. In combination with morphometric data and geographic distributions, several morphological characters such as degree of tympanum exposure, skin texture, ulnar/tarsal tubercles and sexual secondary characters (vocal slits and nuptial pads in males) were found to be useful for diagnosing species in the complex. Multivariate discriminant analyses provided a successful classification rate for 83–100% of specimens. Discriminant analysis of localities in environmental niche space showed a successful classification rate of 75–98%. Identity tests of ENMs rejected hypotheses of niche equivalency, although not strongly because the high values on niche overlap. Pristimantis acuminatus and P. enigmaticus sp. nov. are distributed along the lowlands of central–southern Ecuador and northern Peru, in contrast with P. limoncochensis sp. nov. and P. omeviridis sp. nov., which are found in northern Ecuador and southern Colombia, up to 1200 m in the upper Amazon Basin. The methods used herein provide an integrated framework for inventorying the greatly underestimated biodiversity in Amazonia.

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