Present and future potential distribution of the endangered Anairetes alpinus (Passeriformes: Tyrannidae) under global climate change scenarios

Atauchi, P. Joser; Aucca-Chutas, Constantino; Ferro, Gregorio; Prieto‐Torres, David A.

doi:10.1007/s10336-020-01762-z

Cited by 18 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…Therefore, there is an unequivocal need to increase the area and connectivity between PA networks to maximize long-term biodiversity conservation efforts (Prieto-Torres et al 2018, Saura et al 2018. Such an expansion would also connect the plains to areas of higher altitude, where most species are likely to find suitable areas considering a pessimistic scenario of climate change (Seimon et al 2007, Şekercioğlu et al 2008, 2012, Jankowski et al 2013, Atauchi et al 2020. Hence, the inclusion of the effects of climate change in the identification of priority areas for conservation helps to enhance the effectiveness of PA networks (Hannah et al 2007;Triviño et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of future climate change on the geographical distribution of a bird endemic to South American floodplains

Zucchetto¹,

Silveira²,

Prasniewski³

et al. 2021

ACE

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Future climate change poses an immediate threat to biodiversity. Species are shifting their geographic distribution in direct response to climate change. Species around the globe are expected to redistribute poleward and/or to high elevations. However, in the Neotropical region, the effects of climate change on species distribution are still unclear. Here, we aimed to infer the current and future geographical distribution of an insectivorous bird species endemic to South American floodplains, the Mato Grosso Antbird (Cercomacra melanaria). We also estimated shifts in the variables of elevation, longitude, latitude, and slope based on forecasting. Current and future distribution in different climate scenarios were predicted using ecological niche modeling (ENM). A non-parametric Kruskall-Wallis test followed by Dunn's post hoc test were carried out to determine if dependent variables (elevation, slope, latitude, and longitude) differed between climate scenarios. Our findings suggest that future climate change will have negative effects (range contraction) on the distribution of the Mato Grosso Antbird. The decrease in the species' geographical range will cause it to shift to higher elevations, latitudes, longitudes, and slopes. The species should tend to disperse toward more suitable areas located in highlands close to wetlands, such as the headwaters of the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPB), and toward the Andean highlands. However, this species inhabits strictly forested environments covering a small home range and its mobility capacity is limited. It is possible that the species will not be able to achieve future geographical redistribution, thus increasing its risk of extinction. Effets des futurs changements climatiques sur la répartition géographique d'un oiseau endémique des plaines inondables d'Amérique du SudRÉSUMÉ. Les futurs changements climatiques constituent une menace immédiate pour la biodiversité. Les espèces modifient leur répartition géographique en réaction directe aux changements climatiques. On s'attend à ce que les espèces du monde entier se redistribuent vers les pôles ou les hautes altitudes. Cependant, dans la région Néotropicale, les effets des changements climatiques sur la répartition des espèces ne sont toujours pas clairs. Dans le présent article, nous avons tenté de déduire la répartition géographique actuelle et future d'une espèce d'oiseau insectivore endémique des plaines inondables d'Amérique du Sud, le Grisin du Mato Grosso (Cercomacra melanaria). Nous avons également calculé les changements sur le plan des variables d'altitude, de longitude, de latitude et de pente en fonction des prévisions. La répartition actuelle et future selon différents scénarios climatiques a été prédite en utilisant la modélisation de niche écologique (MNÉ). Nous avons réalisé un test non paramétrique de Kruskall-Wallis, puis un test post hoc de Dunn, pour déterminer si les variables dépendantes (altitude, pente, latitude et longitude) différaient entre les scénarios climatiques. Nos résultats indiquent ...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of future climate change on the geographical distribution of a bird endemic to South American floodplains

Zucchetto¹,

Silveira²,

Prasniewski³

et al. 2021

ACE

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“…Although it is known that climate factors may have indirect correlation with other factors, it is also suggested that estimates can be made by including edaphic and biotic factors (Özkan et al, 2015;Mert et al, 2016;Kıraç & Mert, 2019). As it is mentioned before, modeling using bioclimate variables is often preferred to reveal the possible effects of climate change (Kurpis et al, 2019;Mohammadi et al, 2019;Atauchi et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

İklim Değişikliğinin Boylu Ardıç Türünün Potansiyel Dağılımı Üzerindeki Etkisinin Kestirimi

Özdemir

Gülsoy

Mert

2020

Kastamonu Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi

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Aim of study: The main purpose of the present study is to model present and future potential distribution areas of the Crimean juniper (Juniperus excelsa M. BIEB.) under climate change. Area of study: The study was carried out in the Lakes District that covers Burdur, Isparta and Antalya provinces in the west of the Mediterranean region. Material and methods: During the study, the inventory data of 40 productive juniper stands in the region were collected. The future projections for the study area were made for the year 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios and 19 bioclimatic predictors from HadGEM2-ES. Modeling process was performed by using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method. Main results: The AUC value of the model was determined as 0.966 ± 0.028. The model identified that Precipitation of Driest Month, Temperature Seasonality, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Diurnal Range were the major variables influencing the current and future distributions of the species. According to the models, there will be a dramatic decrease in the potential distribution of the Crimean juniper. Consequently, the results from all these studies will be able to create an effective base for the biodiversity and ecosystem planning studies to be realized according to the climate change scenarios. Highlights: Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of plant species in the future is an important topic in ecological researches. Climate change scenarios are the most preferred parameters to remove this uncertainty. It is predicted that the Crimean juniper will be affected by climate change and its distribution will decrease dramatically.

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“…Para evaluar los efectos de cambio climático en la distribución potencial de P. raimondii para los años 2050-2070 usamos dos escenarios de cambio climático (uno optimista [RCP 4.5] y otro pesimista [RCP 8.5]) y tres modelos de circulación general (CCSM4, MIROC5, HadGEM2-ES) debido a que han demostrado buen rendimiento en los andes Tropicales (Atauchi et al 2020). Ambos RCP anticipan incrementos de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero por el consumo de combustibles fósiles, aprovechamiento excesivo de los recursos naturales y demanda de alimento por el crecimiento demográfico con ausencia de políticas de mitigación.…”

Section: Datos Ambientalesunclassified

Distribución potencial de la especie Puya raimondii e importancia de las áreas naturales protegidas frente al cambio climático

Huaman-Arqque¹,

Atauchi²,

Clavijo-Manuttupa³

et al. 2022

Ecol. Austral

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R��. La Reina de los Andes (Puya raimondii) es una especie vegetal categorizada como 'en peligro' debido a la fragmentación y la perdida de hábitat, y a la disminución de sus poblaciones a través de su área de distribución. Usamos modelamiento de nicho ecológico en el contexto de varios escenarios de cambio climático para estimar la distribución potencial de la especie para el presente y para los años 2050 y 2070. Analizamos el efecto de perdida de hábitat y la importancia de las áreas naturales protegidas a través de su rango de extensión. Los modelos de nicho ecológico predijeron una distribución de 137522 km 2 y un remanente de hábitat de 69356 km 2 entre Perú y Bolivia, reducido en un 54.4% por las actividades humanas. En promedio, el cambio climático reducirá el área de distribución potencial un 41.3% en el 2050 y un 51.1% en el 2070. Las áreas naturales protegidas actuales no son significativas para la conservación de esta especie; cubren sólo un 7.5% de su distribución, pero observamos una reducción de 41.7-47.5% de hábitat de la especie dentro de esas áreas a causa del cambio climático. Estos resultados ofrecen una perspectiva de estudios de cambio climático para definir unidades de conservación y estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático.[Palabras clave: nicho ecológico, distribución de especies, especies de alta montaña, áreas protegidas, conservación] Abstract. Potential distribution of Puya raimondii species and the importance of natural protected areas in the face of climate change. The Queen of the Andes (Puya raimondii) is considered an 'endangered' species due to habitat fragmentation and loss, and declining populations throughout its range. We used ecological niche modeling in the context of multiple climate change scenarios to estimate the potential present and future (2050 and 2070) distribution of the species, analyzing the effects of habitat loss and the importance of natural protected areas across its range. Our models predicted a range of 137522 km 2 and a remaining habitat of 69356 km 2 between Perú and Bolivia, reduced 54.4% by human activities. On average, climate change will reduce the potential range by 41.3% in 2050 and 51.1% in 2070. Natural protected areas are not significant for the conservation of the species since they cover only 7.5% of its distribution, we observed a reduction of 41.7-47.5% of the range of the species in these areas due to climate change. Our results offer a perspective by which climate change studies can define conservation units and climate change strategies.

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Present and future potential distribution of the endangered Anairetes alpinus (Passeriformes: Tyrannidae) under global climate change scenarios

Cited by 18 publications

References 88 publications

Effects of future climate change on the geographical distribution of a bird endemic to South American floodplains

Effects of future climate change on the geographical distribution of a bird endemic to South American floodplains

İklim Değişikliğinin Boylu Ardıç Türünün Potansiyel Dağılımı Üzerindeki Etkisinin Kestirimi

Distribución potencial de la especie Puya raimondii e importancia de las áreas naturales protegidas frente al cambio climático

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