A 4500-year record of hurricane-induced storm surges is developed from sediment cores collected from a coastal sinkhole near Apalachee Bay, Florida. Recent deposition of sand layers in the upper sediments of the pond was found to be contemporaneous with significant, historic storm surges at the site modeled using SLOSH and the Best Track, post-1851 A.D. dataset. Using the historic portion of the record for calibration, paleohurricane deposits were identified by sand content and dated using radiocarbon-based age models. Marine-indicative foraminifera, some originating at least 5 km offshore, were present in several modern and ancient storm deposits. The presence and long-term preservation of offshore foraminifera suggest that this site and others like it may yield promising microfossil-based paleohurricane reconstructions in the future. Due to the sub-decadal (~ 7 year) resolution of the record and the site's high susceptibility to hurricane-generated storm surges, the average, local frequency of recorded events, approximately 3.9 storms per century, is greater than that of previously published paleohurricane records from the region. The high incidence of recorded events permitted a time series of local hurricane frequency during the last five millennia to be constructed. Variability in the frequency of the largest storm layers was found to be greater than what would likely occur by chance alone, with intervals of both anomalously high and low storm frequency identified. However, the rate at which smaller layers were deposited was relatively constant over the last five millennia. This may suggest that significant variability in hurricane frequency has occurred only in the highest magnitude events. The frequency of high magnitude events peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago. High magnitude events were relatively rare with about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 to 1600 years ago and between 400 to 150 years ago. A marked decline in the number of large storm deposits, which began around 600 years ago, has persisted through present with below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia.

How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record.

[1] Recent work suggests that the patterns of intense (!category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) hurricane strikes over the last few millennia might differ from that of overall hurricane activity during this period. Prior studies typically rely on assigning a threshold storm intensity required to produce a sedimentological overwash signal at a particular coastal site based on historical analogs. Here, we improve on this approach by presenting a new inverse-model technique that constrains the most likely wind speeds required to transport the maximum grain size within resultant storm deposits. As a case study, the technique is applied to event layers observed in sediments collected from a coastal sinkhole in northwestern Florida. We find that (1) simulated wind speeds for modern deposits are consistent with the intensities for historical hurricanes affecting the site, (2) all deposits throughout the $2500 year record are capable of being produced by hurricanes, and (3) a period of increased intense hurricane frequency is

Historical tropical cyclone (TC) and storm surge records are often too limited to quantify the risk to local populations. Paleohurricane sediment records uncover long‐term TC activity, but interpreting these records can be difficult and can introduce significant uncertainties. Here we compare and combine climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling (including a method to account for storm size uncertainty), historical observations, and paleohurricane records to investigate local surge risk, using Apalachee Bay in northwest Florida as an example. The modeling reveals relatively high risk, with 100 year, 500 year, and “worst case” surges estimated to be about 6.3 m, 8.3 m, and 11.3 m, respectively, at Bald Point (a paleorecord site) and about 7.4 m, 9.7 m, and 13.3 m, respectively, at St. Marks (the head of the Bay), supporting the inference from paleorecords that Apalachee Bay has frequently suffered severe inundation for thousands of years. Both the synthetic database and paleorecords contain a much higher frequency of extreme events than the historical record; the mean return period of surges greater than 5 m is about 40 years based on synthetic modeling and paleoreconstruction, whereas it is about 400 years based on historical storm analysis. Apalachee Bay surge risk is determined by storms of broad characteristics, varies spatially over the area, and is affected by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, all of which are important features to consider when accessing the risk and interpreting paleohurricane records. In particular, neglecting size uncertainty may induce great underestimation in surge risk, as the size distribution is positively skewed. While the most extreme surges were generated by the uppermost storm intensities, medium intensity storms (categories 1–3) can produce large to extreme surges, due to their larger inner core sizes. For Apalachee Bay, the storms that induced localized barrier breaching and limited sediment transport (overwash regime; surge between 3 and 5 m) are most likely to be category 2 or 3 storms, and the storms that inundated the entire barrier and deposited significantly more coarse materials (inundation regime; surge > 5 m) are most likely to be category 3 or 4 storms.

[1] Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500-1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.Components: 8066 words, 8 figures.

Coastal barriers are particularly susceptible to the predicted effects of accelerated of sea-level rise and the potential for increased impacts of intense storms. Over centennial scales, barriers are maintained via overtopping during storms, causing deposition of washover fans on their landward sides. This study examines three washover fans on the south shore of Martha's Vineyard using a suite of data including vibracores, ground penetrating radar, high resolution dGPS, and LiDAR data. From these data, the volumes of the deposits were determined and range from 2.1-2.4 x 10 4 M .Two overwashes occurred during Hurricane Bob in 1991. The water levels produced by this storm have a return interval of ~28 years, resulting in an onshore sediment flux of 2.4-3.4 m 3 /m/yr. The third washover was deposited by a nor'easter in January 1997, which has a water level return interval of ~6 years, resulting in a flux of 8.5 m 3 /m/yr. These fluxes are smaller than the flux of sediment needed to maintain a geometrically stable barrier estimated from shoreline retreat rates, suggesting that the barrier is not in long-term equilibrium, a result supported by the thinning of the barrier over this time interval.

En ligne à l'adresse suivante : http://www.ifremer.fr/momarsat2010/biblio/Sarradinetal_2007_publication-3600.pdfInternational audienceEXOCET/D was a three-year project that started in 2004 and that was funded by the European Commission (STREP, FP6-GOCE-CT-2003-505342). The general objective of this project was to develop, implement and test specific technologies aimed at exploring, describing and quantifying biodiversity in deep-sea fragmented habitats as well as at identifying links between community structure and environmental dynamics. The MoMARETO cruise, held during the summer 2006, was the main demonstration action of EXOCET/D. After nearly 3 years of development, the project was a real success with the at sea trial and validation of 13 instrument prototypes developed for the study of deep-sea extreme habitats. These instruments were dedicated to quantitative imaging, in situ measurements, faunal sampling and in vivo experiments

Hurricane activity in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico and its relationship to regional and large-scale climate variability during the Late Holocene is explored. A 4500-year record of hurricane-induced storm surges is developed from sediment cores collected from a coastal sinkhole near Apalachee Bay, Florida. Reconstructed hurricane frequency is shown to exhibit statistically significant variability with the greatest activity occurring between 2700 and 2400 years ago and the least activity between 1900 to 1600 years ago and after 600 years ago. Proxy records of stormrelevant climate variables contain similar timescales of variability and suggest both regional and large-scale mechanisms have influenced hurricane activity on centennial to millennial timescales. In particular, low-frequency migrations of the Loop Current may exercise control over regional hurricane activity by changing the thermal structure of the upper ocean and influencing the role of storm-induced upwelling on hurricane intensification. A new method for estimating the frequency of hurricanegenerated storm surges is presented and applied to Apalachee Bay, Florida. Multisite paleohurricane reconstructions from this region are developed, and the effects of geographic boundary conditions and temporal resolution on estimates of paleohurricane frequency are explored. I would also like to thank Andrew Ashton, Katie Boldt, Christine Brandon, Ilya Buynevich, Emily Carruthers, Bill Curry, Andrew Desnoyers, Pat Donnelly, Jeff Dusenberry, Rob Evans, Liviu Giosan, Maya Gomes, Andrea Hawkes, Ning Lin, Dana McDonald, Skye Moret, Richard Poore, Sai Ravela, Rebecca Sorrell, Richard Sullivan, Jess Tierney, Michael Toomey, and Jon Woodruff for their efforts in the field, the lab and for insightful discussions of ideas and useful feedback on manuscripts.I am also grateful for the financial support provided by the American Meteorological Society, the National Science Foundation, the Bermuda Risk Prediction Initiative, the National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping, and the Coastal Ocean Institute. 4 IntroductionThe life history of a hurricane is dictated by the environmental conditions it encounters (Bergeron 1954). Likewise, climate, which encompasses the full range of conditions experienced by all storms, constrains the attributes of hurricane populations (Gray 1968, Emanuel 1987, Emanuel 1988.Tropical cyclones are also important, active components of Earth's climate system (Hart 2010, Sriver et al. 2008. The relative climatic stability of the tropics is a theme that stretches from the warm, equable climates of Earth's distant past (Korty et al. Given the destructive role that tropical cyclones have played through history, a great deal of effort has been directed at understanding the processes that control their frequency, intensity, and track. Making these efforts all the more urgent, humans, like hurricanes, may also be influencing the very climate by which we are affected. In a 1957 paper about the accumulation of CO 2 in the atmosphere, RogerRevelle fa...