Climate forcing of unprecedented intense‐hurricane activity in the last 2000 years

Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Lane, D. Philip; MacDonald, Daniel G.; Shuman, Bryan N.; Toomey, Michael; Hengstum, Peter J. van; Woodruff, Jonathan D.

doi:10.1002/2014ef000274

Cited by 111 publications

(211 citation statements)

References 69 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

203

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The twentieth century increase in event frequency in AL (Figure 4) is consistent with increased storminess detected by Noren et al [2002] and more frequent event deposits in AL centered around 1600 C.E. coincide with the interval of highest hurricane activity of the past 2000 years [Donnelly et al, 2015]. While this correlation suggests that AL event frequency and local erosion are sensitive to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events, limited agreement among the existing regional storm reconstructions precludes a definitive analysis.…”

Section: 1002/2015gl064436supporting

confidence: 64%

“…Variations in MAR at AL (Figure 3) and variations in the magnitude and frequency of event deposits (Figure 4) must be interpreted within the context of changing climate, possible changes in the magnitude and [Donnelly et al, 2015], (e) PRGL hydroclimate index with positive values indicating wetter conditions [Hubeny et al, 2011], and (f) Deep Pond lake-level reconstruction [Marsicek et al, 2013]. Gray shading indicates periods of more frequent event deposition at Amherst Lake.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Contrasting human versus climatic impacts on erosion

Cook

Yellen

Woodruff

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Both human activity and climate change can influence erosion rates and initiate rapid landscape change. Understanding the relative impact of these factors is critical to managing the risks of extreme erosion related to flooding and landslide occurrence. Here we present a 2100 year record of sediment mass accumulation and inferred erosion based on lacustrine sediment cores from Amherst Lake, Vermont, USA. Using deposition from August 2011 Tropical Storm Irene as a modern analogue, we identified distinct event deposits indicative of destructive erosion events. These deposits record a prolonged (multidecadal) interval of enhanced erosion following the initial storm‐induced landscape disturbance. The direct impact of human land cover alteration is minimal in comparison to the more recent twentieth century increase in the occurrence of catastrophic erosion linked to overall wetter conditions that favor high erosion rates and more easily trigger landslides during periods of extreme precipitation.

show abstract

Section: 1002/2015gl064436supporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting human versus climatic impacts on erosion

Cook

Yellen

Woodruff

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645-1715 CE), the most severe change in solar irradiance in documented history (7,8), is of particular interest in this context, but TC proxy records that cover this period are scarce, often present a conservative estimate of the total number of storm events (9), and largely have insufficient time resolution to distinguish the MM (6,(10)(11)(12). Documentary data sets are the main source of paleotempestology information of appropriate temporal resolution, but most document-based TC studies have primarily focused on long-term TC climatology (e.g., seasonality, recurrence intervals) rather than interannual or decadal-scale variability (13,14).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Trouet

Harley

Domínguez‐Delmás

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Assessing the impact of future climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of crucial societal importance, but the limited quantity and quality of observational records interferes with the skill of future TC projections. In particular, North Atlantic TC response to radiative forcing is poorly understood and creates the dominant source of uncertainty for twenty-first-century projections. Here, we study TC variability in the Caribbean during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645-1715 CE), a period defined by the most severe reduction in solar irradiance in documented history (1610-present). For this purpose, we combine a documentary time series of Spanish shipwrecks in the Caribbean (1495-1825 CE) with a tree-growth suppression chronology from the Florida Keys (1707. We find a 75% reduction in decadal-scale Caribbean TC activity during the MM, which suggests modulation of the influence of reduced solar irradiance by the cumulative effect of cool North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, El Niño-like conditions, and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our results emphasize the need to enhance our understanding of the response of these oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns to radiative forcing and climate change to improve the skill of future TC projections.L andfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) bring devastation to natural and human landscapes with floods, winds, and storm surges. In recent decades, TC-related human mortality and economic losses have risen in step with increasing populations in high-risk coastal communities (1). TC damage is expected to further increase in the near future with rising exposure and projected anthropogenic climate change (2). This is particularly the case for the North Atlantic Basin, which is one of the most TC-active basins globally. The development of successful adaptation and mitigation strategies relies on skillful projections of North Atlantic TC activity, as well as an improved understanding of the drivers of its variability.Modeling studies of twenty-first-century global TC activity generally converge in their projections of increased TC intensity and decreased frequency, but the magnitude range of projected North Atlantic TC variability is wide (3). Uncertainties in twentyfirst-century North Atlantic TC projections are largely driven by the chaotic nature of the climate system and by our limited understanding of TC response to radiative forcing, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, as well as natural variability in volcanic and solar activity (4). Response uncertainty is the dominant source of uncertainty toward the end of the twenty-first century (4), with different model runs resulting in TC responses of opposing sign to projected radiative forcing (3). Our understanding of TC response to radiative forcing-and thus the skill of future TC projections-is restricted by limitations in the time-series length and quality of observational records (5) that hinder trend detection and attribution (3).To attribute significant TC cha...

show abstract

“…To better understand present-day climate conditions and the potential trend of future climate change, it is important to extend the temporal scale of investigation into the last two millennia (Taira, 1980;Fritz et al, 2000;Hu et al, 2001;Booth et al, 2006;Mann, 2007;Anderson et al, 2010;Tierney et al, 2010;Vuille et al, 2012;Consortium, 2013;Wurtzel et al, 2013;Denniston et al, 2015;Donnelly et al, 2015;Yan et al, 2015b). The importance of the last two millennia is that they include some distinct climate intervals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wet and cold climate conditions recorded by coral geochemical proxies during the beginning of the first millennium CE in the northern South China Sea

Xiao

Deng

Chen

et al. 2017

Journal of Asian Earth Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The past two millennia include some distinct climate intervals, such as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), which were caused by natural forcing factors, as well as the Current Warm Period (CWP) that has been linked to anthropogenic factors. Therefore, this period has been of great interest to climate change researchers. However, most studies are based on terrestrial proxy records,

show abstract

Climate forcing of unprecedented intense‐hurricane activity in the last 2000 years

Abstract: How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record.

Cited by 111 publications

References 69 publications

Contrasting human versus climatic impacts on erosion

Contrasting human versus climatic impacts on erosion

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Wet and cold climate conditions recorded by coral geochemical proxies during the beginning of the first millennium CE in the northern South China Sea

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About