[1] Recent work suggests that the patterns of intense (!category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) hurricane strikes over the last few millennia might differ from that of overall hurricane activity during this period. Prior studies typically rely on assigning a threshold storm intensity required to produce a sedimentological overwash signal at a particular coastal site based on historical analogs. Here, we improve on this approach by presenting a new inverse-model technique that constrains the most likely wind speeds required to transport the maximum grain size within resultant storm deposits. As a case study, the technique is applied to event layers observed in sediments collected from a coastal sinkhole in northwestern Florida. We find that (1) simulated wind speeds for modern deposits are consistent with the intensities for historical hurricanes affecting the site, (2) all deposits throughout the $2500 year record are capable of being produced by hurricanes, and (3) a period of increased intense hurricane frequency is

The magnitude of flooding in New York City by Hurricane Sandy is commonly believed to be extremely rare, with estimated return periods near or greater than 1000 years. However, the brevity of tide gauge records result in significant uncertainties when estimating the uniqueness of such an event. Here we compare resultant deposition by Hurricane Sandy to earlier storm-induced flood layers in order to extend records of flooding to the city beyond the instrumental dataset. Inversely modeled storm conditions from grain size trends show that a more compact yet more intense hurricane in 1821 CE probably resulted in a similar storm tide and a significantly larger storm surge. Our results indicate the occurrence of additional flood events like Hurricane Sandy in recent centuries, and highlight the inadequacies of the instrumental record in estimating current flood risk by such extreme events.

Living coastal barriers, such as coral reefs, tidal marshes, mangroves and shellfish beds are widely recognized for their potential role in mitigating flood risk. Limited data exists, however, for assessing the effectiveness of these natural defenses as forms of flood mitigation. In particular, very few mature shellfish beds exist today for modern study due to their destruction in the past few centuries. As an alternative method of study, we present here sedimentary reconstructions of storm overwash from coastal ponds internal to New York Harbor. We use these reconstructions to show that the initial degradation of oyster beds following European settlement of the area coincides with a significant increase in wave-derived overwash deposition at all three of our field sites. Numerical simulations of two flood events of record in the harbor (Hurricane Sandy and a severe winter storm in 1992) were run without and with oyster beds of varying heights (1 m above the seafloor-to-intertidal). Simulations show that the removal of these oyster beds increases wave energy directly off-shore of our field sites by between 30% and 200%. Sedimentary reconstructions and wave modeling experiments therefore both support oyster beds serving as a significant form of coastal protection prior to European disturbance.

The Labyrinth in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is characterized by large bedrock channels emerging from beneath the margin of Wright Upper Glacier. To study the morphodynamics of large subglacial channels cut into bedrock, we develop herein a numerical model based on the classical theory of subglacial channels and recent results on bedrock abrasion by saltating bed load. Model results show that bedrock abrasion in subglacial channels with pressurized flow reaches a maximum at an intermediate distance up-ice from the glacier snout for a wide range of sediment grain sizes and sediment loads. Close to the snout, the velocity is too low and the sediment particles cannot be mobilized. Far from the snout, the flow accelerates and sediment is transported in suspension, thus limiting particle impacts at the channel bottom and reducing abrasion. This non-monotonic relationship between subglacial flow and bedrock abrasion produces concave up bottom profiles in subglacial channels and potential cross-section constrictions after channel confluences. Both landforms are present in the bedrock channels of the Labyrinth. We therefore conclude that these geomorphic features are a possible signature of bedrock abrasion, rather than glacial scour, and reflect the complex interplay between transport rate, sediment load, and transport capacity in subglacial channels.

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