Late Holocene hurricane activity and climate variability in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

Hurricane activity in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico and its relationship to regional and large-scale climate variability during the Late Holocene is explored. A 4500-year record of hurricane-induced storm surges is developed from sediment cores collected from a coastal sinkhole near Apalachee Bay, Florida. Reconstructed hurricane frequency is shown to exhibit statistically significant variability with the greatest activity occurring between 2700 and 2400 years ago and the least activity between 1900 to 1600 years ago and after 600 years ago. Proxy records of stormrelevant climate variables contain similar timescales of variability and suggest both regional and large-scale mechanisms have influenced hurricane activity on centennial to millennial timescales. In particular, low-frequency migrations of the Loop Current may exercise control over regional hurricane activity by changing the thermal structure of the upper ocean and influencing the role of storm-induced upwelling on hurricane intensification. A new method for estimating the frequency of hurricanegenerated storm surges is presented and applied to Apalachee Bay, Florida. Multisite paleohurricane reconstructions from this region are developed, and the effects of geographic boundary conditions and temporal resolution on estimates of paleohurricane frequency are explored. I would also like to thank Andrew Ashton, Katie Boldt, Christine Brandon, Ilya Buynevich, Emily Carruthers, Bill Curry, Andrew Desnoyers, Pat Donnelly, Jeff Dusenberry, Rob Evans, Liviu Giosan, Maya Gomes, Andrea Hawkes, Ning Lin, Dana McDonald, Skye Moret, Richard Poore, Sai Ravela, Rebecca Sorrell, Richard Sullivan, Jess Tierney, Michael Toomey, and Jon Woodruff for their efforts in the field, the lab and for insightful discussions of ideas and useful feedback on manuscripts.I am also grateful for the financial support provided by the American Meteorological Society, the National Science Foundation, the Bermuda Risk Prediction Initiative, the National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping, and the Coastal Ocean Institute. 4 IntroductionThe life history of a hurricane is dictated by the environmental conditions it encounters (Bergeron 1954). Likewise, climate, which encompasses the full range of conditions experienced by all storms, constrains the attributes of hurricane populations (Gray 1968, Emanuel 1987, Emanuel 1988.Tropical cyclones are also important, active components of Earth's climate system (Hart 2010, Sriver et al. 2008. The relative climatic stability of the tropics is a theme that stretches from the warm, equable climates of Earth's distant past (Korty et al. Given the destructive role that tropical cyclones have played through history, a great deal of effort has been directed at understanding the processes that control their frequency, intensity, and track. Making these efforts all the more urgent, humans, like hurricanes, may also be influencing the very climate by which we are affected. In a 1957 paper about the accumulation of CO 2 in the atmosphere, RogerRevelle fa...

Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE

“…Long vibracores and the overlapping surface drives from separate cores were combined into a composite core from BaBy3, BaBy4, BaBy5, BaBy6, BaBy8, and BaBy9 by matching visually distinctive bedding and trends in geochemical data. A vibracore and an overlapping surface piston core were taken from the deepest part of Shotgun Pond in 2008 (SHG1) 15 , and the surface piston core was replicated in 2019 (SHG1-MC-D1; Fig. 1; Supplementary Table S1).…”

“…SST variations within the GOM and the western Atlantic tropics likely influence GOM hurricane activity on these longer timescales akin to the shorter-term trends observed within the historical period 16 . Loop Current penetration in the GOM is also thought to be influenced by centennial-scale migrations of the ITCZ mean position 52,53 with possible implications for GOM hurricane activity 14,15 . The mean position and strength of the North Atlantic subtropical high may influence the distribution of Atlantic hurricane landfalls at the centennial timescale for storms that formed in the MDR 10,12,16,50 , although historical data suggest the role of the subtropical high on directing the tracks of storms that formed within the GOM and western Caribbean Sea is insignificant 16 .…”

“…Loop Current penetration into the northern GOM has previously been evoked as a mechanism explaining periods of heightened hurricane activity at Mullet and Spring Creek ponds (e.g. 14,15 . The extent of northward Loop Current penetration is closely tied to the position of the ITCZ 52 , so these factors are not necessarily independent.…”

“…Additional mechanisms are thought to influence tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) region, including the Loop Current 14,15 , the El Niño-Southern Oscillation 11 , and factors controlling cyclogenesis (e.g. SSTs, wind shear, and upper troposphere temperatures) in the deep tropics on the western half of the Atlantic Ocean and within the GOM, where the majority of historical Gulf Coast landfalling hurricanes have formed 16 .…”

Quantifying overwash flux in barrier systems: An example from Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, USA

“…The cumulative probability from the GPD fit was used to calculate the return intervals for each 10 cm bin of water levels (figure 8). The return interval for the water level associated with Hurricane Bob is ~28 years and that associated with the January 1997 nor'easter is ~6 years (Lane, 2011).…”