В статье с использованием методологии межотраслевого анализа уточняются представления о значимости отраслей в качестве потребителей и производителей промежуточной продукции и оценивается влияние интеграции в торговле товарами со странами Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС) на выпуск и отдельные экономические показатели для России по видам деятельности. Показано, что структура выгод от торговой интеграции трансформируется при переходе к анализу в терминах добавленной стоимости: в химическом комплексе и машиностроении выгоды сокращаются, несмотря на сохранение лидирующих позиций этих отраслей, а в сфере услуг и промежуточных производствах, и прежде всего в добыче полезных ископаемых, - напротив, растут.
Based on its definition of industrial sector competitiveness the paper presents a "competitiveness chart" of branches of industry as per postcrisis status and points out key contributing factors in the success/failure of industry groups. Development opportunities and threats of branches of industry are analyzed, leading to a long-term industry "competitiveness chart." A detailed SWOT analysis is made of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for a number of key industries.
The paper describes the experience of analyzing and forecasting various aspects of Russian economy based on input−output tables (1st and 2nd quadrants) estimated by the authors from Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the period 1995-2016.
This paper reviews the consequences of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Russia in 2014 for Russian ecomony in general, banking system and the real sector. Based on official statements, the new implied monetary policy principles for 2015 are outlined. The paper also proposes several policy measures to overcome the credit shock caused in part by over-tightening of monetary policy in 2014. It relies on Bank of Russia Monetary Policy reports and the article of Bank of Russia experts (Badasen et al., 2015) to illustrate the approach to economic analysis that led to a monetary policy-induced credit shock.
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