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The article analyzes the current state of Russian foreign trade and its impact on the development of the economy. The main changes that occurred in the global economy during the crisis caused by the new coronavirus pandemic are considered. It is concluded that most of the trends that formed in the global economy before the crisis are likely to receive additional acceleration after its end. In this regard, additional restrictions may be imposed on traditional Russian exports. It is stated that foreign trade should become one of the key factors that ensure the stability of the Russian economy in the medium and long term. The requirements for the balance of payments and the exchange rate that ensure the stability of the macroeconomic dynamics and parameters of foreign trade are determined. Given the current trends in the parameters of the world economy and trade, it should be assumed that the structure of Russian exports will not undergo significant changes over the next 15 years. This means that for the next 15 years, the development of the export potential of the fuel and energy sector, the diversification of the geography of energy supplies, remains one of the key tasks of the foreign economic strategy. The key restrictions of the integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are evaluated.
The article analyzes the current state of Russian foreign trade and its impact on the development of the economy. The main changes that occurred in the global economy during the crisis caused by the new coronavirus pandemic are considered. It is concluded that most of the trends that formed in the global economy before the crisis are likely to receive additional acceleration after its end. In this regard, additional restrictions may be imposed on traditional Russian exports. It is stated that foreign trade should become one of the key factors that ensure the stability of the Russian economy in the medium and long term. The requirements for the balance of payments and the exchange rate that ensure the stability of the macroeconomic dynamics and parameters of foreign trade are determined. Given the current trends in the parameters of the world economy and trade, it should be assumed that the structure of Russian exports will not undergo significant changes over the next 15 years. This means that for the next 15 years, the development of the export potential of the fuel and energy sector, the diversification of the geography of energy supplies, remains one of the key tasks of the foreign economic strategy. The key restrictions of the integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are evaluated.
The paper examines the opportunities and obstacles to increasing the employment of women with children in Russia. There is a tight correlation between Russia’s lagging behind in the share of working women with children under the age of three and a lack of supply of preschool and childcare institutions. Using quantitative analysis of the Russian regions, we show that the expansion of the supply of preschool education services is associated with an increase in the employment of women, and the cost of introducing additional places in preschool organizations is recouped by additional tax revenues from working women with children in two years. Our cross-country analysis shows that the transition from traditional gender and social roles to more equal ones, the reduction of gender inequality, the encouragement of fathers to take parental leave, and the increased availability of part-time or flexible-schedule employment for women with children could further facilitate the employment of women with children. Our estimates show that an increase of preschool enrollment in Russia to the level of European countries would materialize a sizable economic growth potential: an increase in income per capita would be 3.5%.
By the fall of 2021, the Russian economy had practically overcome the crisis caused by coronavirus pandemic and sharp drop in oil prices in the first half of 2020, having returned in terms of GDP, industrial production and investment in fixed assets to pre-crisis levels. At the same time, the prospects for further growth of the Russian economy remain uncertain, since both in the short and long term, the balance of factors affecting the growth rate of Russia’s GDP is shifted to a negative area. These external factors include the growing risks of a new financial and/or economic crisis in the world’s leading economies (including China), imposing large-scale sanctions against Russia in connection with a special operation in Ukraine, the instability of world commodity markets, as well as the processes of decarbonization and restructuring of the world economy. Internal factors of growth comprise increased investment activity of private and state-owned companies (and in the field of national projects), expansion of non-resource non-energy exports, while internal growth constraints comprise possible decline in the working-age population in Russia and slow growth of the real personal income. According to the official forecast by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, after the recovery acceleration of the economy by 4.2% in 2021 (the first estimate by Rosstat — 4.7%), GDP growth will stabilize at about 3% per year in subsequent years. However, it is lower than expected growth rates of the world economy, but it is significantly higher than the average growth rates of the Russian economy over the past decade (about 0.7% per year).To reveal the growth rates structure, which corresponds to anticipated economic dynamics in Russia, we have used an approach based on identifying three components of GDP growth rates — structural, foreign trade, and business cycle ones. In this article a new decomposition method was applied, which assumes the neutrality of the foreign trade component if the oil price is at the average long-term values.In case of achievement of the RF Ministry of Economic Development forecast, actual and structural unemployment indicators convergence may lead to a shortage of labor in certain sectors of the Russian economy in 2022—2023. The solution to this problem lies in the sphere of external and internal migration policy intensification and measures for promoting inter-sectoral labor mobility. Estimates of the output gap show that it is advisable to pursue a stimulating fiscal policy in 2022 with a transition to neutrality in 2023—2024. Supporting the global spread of vaccines against coronavirus infection and the recovery of the global economy will contribute to an increase in oil prices and in the foreign trade component of economic growth in Russia.
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