Inter-industry effects from Russian trade integration into the EAEU

Abstract

В статье с использованием методологии межотраслевого анализа уточняются представления о значимости отраслей в качестве потребителей и производителей промежуточной продукции и оценивается влияние интеграции в торговле товарами со странами Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС) на выпуск и отдельные экономические показатели для России по видам деятельности. Показано, что структура выгод от торговой интеграции трансформируется при переходе к анализу в терминах добавленной стоимости: в химическом комплексе и машиностроении выгоды сокращаются, несмотря на сохранение лидирующих позиций этих отраслей, а в сфере услуг и промежуточных производствах, и прежде всего в добыче полезных ископаемых, - напротив, растут.

Using Input−Output Tables for Analyzing and Forecasting the Sectoral Structure of Russian Economy

“…The sectoral growth rates of exports and 6 The All-Russian Classifier of Products by Economic Activities. 7 The All-Russian Classifier of Products was adopted and put into effect since 1994 by the Decree of the Russian State Standard Service as of December 30, 1993, No. 301.…”

“…The input data were the volumes of growth in net exports as a result of integration processes, which were obtained by using the methods for estimating the integration potential in terms of export growth and import substitution. When the official IOT appeared in March 2017, we presented the updated estimates based on new data and published them in [7]. We estimated the distribution of benefits in terms of output and value added as follows: (a) the vector of growth in the output of supplier sectors was defined as the product of the Leontief inverse matrix and the vector of growth in net exports due to integration; (b) the vector of growth in value added was estimated using the elementwise multiplication of the output growth vector by the vector of the value added share in the output.…”

Principles of the Economic Policy in the Euroasian Economic Union (EEU): Development of Innovative Productions

“…As of 2018, Russian accounted for more than 70% of the GDP of EEU member states. 2 . One may conclude that Russian economic policy plays an essential role in terms of assessing the prospects for transforming the EEU into one of the centers of the world innovative development.…”

“…On the other hand, there has recently been a tendency 1 Despite the insignificant period of the EAEU's existence, numerous studies are devoted to this block, which analyze historical aspects of EEU member states development and find out prerequisites for creating a new union. [4,9,12,18].Attempts are made to to summarize interim results of the Eurasian integration [2,20]. Some research consider the problems of political stability of the EEU, the possibilities of accepting new members, the prospects for cooperation of the EAEU countries with other blocks -EU, ACEAN, "Silk Road" countries [10,11,17,21,24].…”