This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.
In this paper, we empirically examine whether the assumptions and predictions of the Hotelling model are consistent with patterns observed in data. We consider nonlinear functional forms for the extraction cost and resource demand to develop an empirical Hotelling model with technological progress and stock dependent extraction costs. Using panel data on fourteen nonrenewable natural resources to estimate this empirical Hotelling model, we get qualitatively different results as compared to the related literature. We find evidence of stock-dependent extraction costs for most resources. There is no evidence against the linearity of the optimal extraction rate in the resource stock for almost all resources studied. Furthermore, the Hotelling model may sustain a zero long-run growth rate in resource prices. These results depend on whether firms use different extractive technologies or whether the structural break observed on resource prices is taken into account.
Background
Dry spells are serious obstacles to rainfed agriculture in Sahelian countries. Various water harvesting techniques are used by farmers to reduce the impact of climate variability, but are not sufficient in the case of a prolonged drought lasting 2–3 weeks. The farmers believe supplemental irrigation is a good way to adapt rainfed agriculture to dry spells. In this study, we evaluated the food contribution and profitability of supplemental irrigation of rainfed crops comparing various farm ponds that collect runoff water from the surrounding landscape.
Methods
We analyzed the contribution of supplemental irrigation to food security and compared the profitability of different types of ponds constructed by farmers in northern Burkina Faso. Human cereal requirement was used as indicators to analyze the contribution of supplemental irrigation to food security. The criteria for analyzing the profitability of the selected ponds were gross margin (GM), net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and payback period (PBP).
Results
Our results show that the additional yield of corn obtained with supplemental irrigation makes it possible to meet the monthly cereal needs of at least 17 people and generates an additional GM of FCFA 178,483 (US$ 309.26) compared to no irrigation. The estimate of the NPV, from IRR and PBP showed that the profitability of supplemental irrigation in 15 agricultural seasons varies between the type of ponds constructed.
Conclusions
Given the up-front cost and the farmers’ lack of resources, the ponds require a subsidy or a credit policy to facilitate the adoption of supplemental irrigation in Sahelian countries. However, the irrigation strategies to optimize agricultural income remain a field of research to be explored.
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