In this study, the authors investigate farmers' vulnerability to climate variability and evaluate local adoption of technology and farmers' perceptions of adaptation strategies to rainfall variability and policies. A survey was conducted in a community in northern Burkina Faso following the crop failure of 2004. In 2006, following a better harvest, another survey was conducted to compare farmers' actions and reactions during two contrasted rainy seasons. The results confirm that farmers from this community have substantially changed their practices during the last few decades. They have adopted a wide range of techniques that are intended to simultaneously increase crop yield and reduce yield variability. Micro water harvesting (Zaï) techniques have been widely adopted (41%), and a majority of fields have been improved with stone lines (60%). Hay (48%) and sorghum residues are increasingly stored to feed animals during the dry season, making bull and sheep fattening now a common practice. Dry season vegetable production also involves a majority of the population (60%). According to farmers, most of the new techniques have been adopted because of growing land scarcity and new market opportunities, rather than because of climate variability. Population pressure has reached a critical threshold, while land scarcity, declining soil fertility and reduced animal mobility have pushed farmers to intensify agricultural production. These techniques reduce farmers' dependency on rainfall but are still insufficient to reduce poverty and vulnerability. Thirty-nine percent of the population remains vulnerable after a good rainy season. Despite farmers' desire to remain in their own communities, migrations are likely to remain a major source of regular income and form of recourse in the event of droughts.

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This study highlights the perception and the option value of climate information in the sahelian and sudano-sahelian agro-climatic zones of Burkina Faso. From the sampled farmers only 21.78% have access to climate information, while 93% of them need climate information to guide through their decision in planning agricultural activities. Option value shows the interest granted by farmers using climate information. About 64% of the farmers are willing to pay an average of Francs CFA 546.34 to obtain climate information. The willingness to pay is determined by the the farmers' ability to predict the climate, to use radio as a means of information, farmers' awareness of previous forecasts and early onset of rainy season. While farmers considered benefits from the use of climate information, it is clear that its contribution to farm income remains a field of research to explore. Thus it is necessary to experiment with individual farms and to evaluate the contribution of climate information to the value added in different crops and farmers' income.

ABSTRACT. The Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa has experienced recurrent droughts since the mid-1970s and today there is considerable concern for how this region will be able to adapt to future climate change. To develop well targeted adaptation strategies, the relative importance of climate factors as drivers of land use and livelihood change need to be better understood. Based on the perceptions of 1249 households in five countries across an annual rainfall gradient of 400-900 mm, we provide an estimate of the relative weight of climate factors as drivers of changes in rural households during the past 20 years. Climate factors, mainly inadequate rainfall, are perceived by 30-50% of households to be a cause of decreasing rainfed crop production, whereas a wide range of other factors explains the remaining 50-70%. Climate factors are much less important for decreasing livestock production and pasture areas. Increases in pasture are also observed and caused by improved tenure in the driest zone. Adaptation strategies to declining crop production include 'prayer' and migration in the 400-500 mm zone; reforestation, migration, and government support in the 500-700 mm zone; and soil improvement in the 700-900 mm zone. Declining livestock holdings are countered by improved fodder resources and veterinary services. It is concluded that although rainfed crop production is mainly constrained by climate factors, livestock and pasture are less climate sensitive in all rainfall zones. This needs to be reflected in national adaptation strategies in the region.

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Rural development in the Sudano-Sahelian region during the past 20 years and future scenarios of change were studied using meta-analysis of case studies, household interviews and scenario assessment. Households have generally increased their wealth, especially when they diversify out of agriculture. Rain-fed crop cultivation is more sensitive to climate factors than livestock, but generally climate factors play a limited direct role for local land use and livelihood strategies. The agricultural sector needs strong support to remain important in the region and off-farm work and migration are likely to continue to increase, which may decrease vulnerability.

Recent improvements in the capability of statistical or dynamic models to predict climate fluctuations several months in advance may be an opportunity to improve the management of climatic risk in rain-fed agriculture. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the potential benefits that seasonal climate predictions can bring to farmers in West Africa. The authors have developed an archetypal bioeconomic model of a smallholder farm in Nioro du Rip, a semiarid region of Senegal. The model is used to simulate the decisions of farmers who have access to a priori information on the quality of the next rainy season. First, the potential economic benefits of a perfect rainfall prediction scheme are evaluated, showing how these benefits are affected by forecast accuracy. Then, the potential benefits of several widely used rainfall prediction schemes are evaluated: one group of schemes based on the statistical relationship between rainfall and sea surface temperatures, and one group based on the predictions of coupled ocean–atmosphere models. The results show that forecasting a dryer than average rainy season would be the most useful to Nioro du Rip farmers if they interpret forecasts as deterministic. Indeed, because forecasts are imperfect, predicting a wetter than average rainy season exposes the farmers to a high risk of failure by favoring cash crops such as maize and peanut that are highly vulnerable to drought. On the other hand, the farmers’ response to a forecast of a dryer than average rainy season minimizes the climate risk by favoring robust crops such as millet and sorghum, which will tolerate higher rainfall in case the forecast is wrong. When either statistical or dynamic climate models are used for forecasting under the same lead time and the same 31-yr hindcast period (i.e., 1970–2000), similar skill and economic values at farm level are found. When a dryer than average rainy season is predicted, both methods yield an increase of the farmers’ income—13.8% for the statistical model and 9.6% for the bias-corrected Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) multimodel ensemble mean.

Environmental change in the Sudan-Sahel region of West Africa (SSWA) has been much debated since the droughts of the 1970s. In this article we assess climate variability and environmental stress in the region. Households in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria were asked about climatic changes and their perceptions were compared across north-south and west-east rainfall gradients. More than 80% of all households found that rainfall had decreased, especially in the wettest areas. Increases in wind speeds and temperature were perceived by an overall 60-80% of households. Contrary to household perceptions, observed rainfall patterns showed an increasing trend over the past 20 years.