The population located along Mono River in the Yoto district faces great challenges in terms of repeated flood disasters in recent years. This paper aims at assessing the conditions which influence flood damage in the study area by using indicators to compute a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI). The study relies on Turner et al.'s vulnerability framework and distinguishes three main components (exposure, susceptibility and resilience) that allow a more in-depth analysis and interpretation of local indicators. As a result flood disaster in the study area is not only due to the extreme variability in terms of flood magnitude and frequency in the Mono River, but also to the interaction between human and the environment. The lack of vegetation along the river bank, the closeness of households' farmlands to the river body, the type of construction and the position of settlements, the household size, the low level education of household head, the lack of diversification of livelihood strategies, the lack of adequate flood warning system, the lack of willingness and ability to take responsive actions coupled with inadequate emergency services, are identified as main determinants increasing communities' vulnerability to flood disaster. Furthermore, the computation of Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) offers easy comparison of communities' vulnerability to flood disaster and pinpoints the most vulnerable communities. At the end of the study, flood exposure, susceptibility, resilience and vulnerability maps were generated.
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.
This paper investigates the role of intra-regional trade on food availability within the context of global climatic change in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).To that end, the study uses a module of trade cost minimization built within a bio-economic optimization model of cropland allocation. The results show that the climate-induced trade pattern in ECOWAS depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions during the century. No specific pattern of trade flows is predicted but several countries may become dependent on food imports outside of ECOWAS. An adjustment of the common external tariffs (CET) may reduce food import costs. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could significantly reduce outside dependence. Finally, actions are urgently needed to be taken to foster agricultural production in ECOWAS.
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