Can intra-regional food trade increase food availability in the context of global climatic change in West Africa?

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of intra-regional trade on food availability within the context of global climatic change in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).To that end, the study uses a module of trade cost minimization built within a bio-economic optimization model of cropland allocation. The results show that the climate-induced trade pattern in ECOWAS depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions during the century. No specific pattern of trade flows is predicted but several countries may become dependent on food imports outside of ECOWAS. An adjustment of the common external tariffs (CET) may reduce food import costs. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could significantly reduce outside dependence. Finally, actions are urgently needed to be taken to foster agricultural production in ECOWAS.

Modelling climate change impact and mitigation actions: A case study of rice productivity in West Africa based on panel data analysis

“…In total, a negative sign tended to prevail over the aggregate sum of coefficients relating to the climate variables, highlighting a negative impact of climate change on paddy rice yields in the WAEMU area. This outcome did match up with the work of Egbendewe et al (2017).…”

“…Furthermore, Jayne et al (2014) emphasized the importance to anticipate more the implications of rapidly changing land due to global climate change, while Kjellstrom et al (2009) stressed the necessity to prevent likewise the consequences on health and labor productivity. Otherwise, some countries such as those members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) may become dependent on food imports outside their geographical space (Egbendewe et al, 2017).…”

Potential impacts of sustainable agricultural practices on smallholders' behavior in developing countries: Evidence from Togo

“…Moreover, in order to estimate the impacts of climate change on revenues in California, the Statewide Agricultural Production Model (SWAP), a price‐endogenous optimization model calibrated with the positive mathematical programming (PMP) method, was used (Howitt et al, 2009). The model developed in this study is a supply‐oriented model that considers climate factors, such as precipitation and temperature, agro‐climatic zones as well as nonclimate factors, such as soil fertility, and output prices as exogenous (Egbendewe et al, 2017; Lokonon et al, 2019).…”

“…The data on most of the parameters comes from the survey. In addition, several previous works have been used to source data on the remaining parameters (Egbendewe et al, 2017; Lokonon et al, 2019; Louhichi & Gomez y Paloma, 2014).…”

Short-Term Implications of Climate Shocks on Wheat-Based Nutrient Flows: A Global “Nutrition at Risk” Analysis through a Stochastic CGE Model

“…For wheat in particular, studies estimate global yields to decrease by around 6% for every 1 °C temperature increase [ 17 , 18 , 19 ]. The risk of extreme events is also growing and thus exposing global nutrient supplies to increased frequency and magnitude of short-term shocks, to which certain regions of the world are more susceptible [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 ]. Through international trade, regions that may not be exposed to yield shocks may become vulnerable to the impacts of shocks occurring elsewhere [ 27 ].…”