Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.
Ammonia (NH 3 ) is the primary alkaline gas in the atmosphere that contributes to formation of secondary particles. Emission of NH 3 from vehicles, particularly gasoline powered light duty vehicles equipped with three-way catalysts, is regarded as an important source apart from emissions from animal wastes and soils, yet measured emission factors for motor vehicles are still not available in China, where traffic-related emission has become an increasingly important source of air pollutants in urban areas. Here we present our tunnel tests for NH 3 from motor vehicles under 'real world conditions' in an urban roadway tunnel in Guangzhou, a central city in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in south China. By attributing all NH 3 emissions in the tunnel to light-duty gasoline vehicles, we obtained a fuel-based emission rate of 2.92 ± 0.18 g L −1 and a mileage-based emission factor of 229.5 ± 14.1 mg km −1 . These emission factors were much higher than those measured in the United States while measured NO x emission factors (7.17 ± 0.60 g L −1 or 0.56 ± 0.05 g km −1 ) were contrastingly near or lower than those previously estimated by MOBILE/PART5 or COPERT IV models. Based on the NH 3 emission factors from this study, on-road vehicles accounted for 8.1% of NH 3 emissions in the PRD region in 2006 instead of 2.5% as estimated in a previous study using emission factors taken from the Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) in the United States.
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