Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

Yang, Jun; Zhou, Maigeng; Ren, Zhoupeng; Li, Mengmeng; Wang, Boguang; Liu, De Li; Chen, Ou; Yin, Peng; Sun, Jimin; Tong, Shilu; Wang, Hao; Zhang, Chunlin; Wang, Jinfeng; Lee, Hyewon; Liu, Qiyong

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21305-1

Cited by 130 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The health benefits would be noticeable under the scenario of climate change with emission control. The results were similar to a modelling study conducted in Great Britain which assessed the public health impacts of the air quality changes arising from climate change interventions and indicated that mitigation policies have the potential to generate dramatic improvements in public health through the improvement in air quality (9). The findings suggest that emission control may mitigate PM 2.5 -related impacts attributable to climate change and may inform policymaking decisions of emission control to confront climate change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…First, the emission control scenario was designed based on RCP4.5, which only stands for a moderate level of greenhouse gas emissions. Second, accounting for some factors, such as population structure, would affect the climate-related health burden in the future ( 10 ), and assuming that the PM 2.5 -mortality association, mortality rate, and population structure were constant at the 2010s levels might lead to some deviations. Further exploration should be performed if data are available.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Modelling Study on PM<sub>2.5</sub>-Related Health Impacts from Climate Change and Air Pollution Emission Control — China, 2010s and 2040s

Huang¹,

Huang²,

Wang³

et al. 2021

China CDC Weekly

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What is already known about this topic?Climate change and air pollution are two important environmental issues in China. It is important to investigate particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 )-related health impacts from climate change and air pollution emission control. What is added by this report?Deaths and years of life lost related to PM 2.5 would increase in climate change scenario, although emission control would outweigh the influence of climate change. What are the implications for public health practice?More targeted actions should be taken to meet challenges of exacerbated PM 2.5 pollutions and its health impacts related to climate change in the future.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Modelling Study on PM<sub>2.5</sub>-Related Health Impacts from Climate Change and Air Pollution Emission Control — China, 2010s and 2040s

Huang¹,

Huang²,

Wang³

et al. 2021

China CDC Weekly

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“…These exposure characteristics are closely related to the risk of heat-related mortality. However, previous studies investigating heat exposure were usually based on case studies in very few data-rich regions [12][13][14][15][16]. Therefore, in this study, we proposed a new method from the perspective of temperature distribution (Figure S1) to estimate the number of heat exposure days in terms of heatrelated mortality risk, without the need for mortality data, and then estimated its impact on the risk of heat-related mortality.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Outside the MMT, a higher or lower temperature may lead to higher morbidity and mortality rates. Although many studies have investigated the effects of climate change on health based on the relationship between temperature and mortality, these studies have usually been based on case studies in very few data-rich regions [12][13][14][15][16]. Likely due to the validity of the data, there is limited evidence regarding the distribution of heat exposure on a national or global scale in terms of heat-related mortality risk under climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Method to Estimate Heat Exposure Days and Its Impacts in China

et al. 2021

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Understanding the spatiotemporal trends of temperature in the context of global warming is significant for public health. Although many studies have examined changes in temperature and the impacts on human health over the past few decades in many regions, they have often been carried out in data-rich regions and have rarely considered acclimatization explicitly. The most frequent temperature (MFT) indicator provides us with the ability to solve this problem. MFT is defined as the longest period of temperature throughout the year to which a human is exposed and therefore acclimates. In this study, we propose a new method to estimate the number of heat exposure days from the perspective of temperature distribution and MFT, based on the daily mean temperature readings of 2142 weather stations in eight major climate zones in China over the past 20 years. This method can be used to calculate the number of heat exposure days in terms of heat-related mortality risk without the need for mortality data. We estimated the distribution and changes of annual mean temperature (AMT), minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and the number of heat exposure days in different climate zones in China. The AMT, MMT, and number of heat exposure days vary considerably across China. They all tend to decrease gradually from low to high latitudes. Heat exposure days are closely related to the risk of heat-related mortality. In addition, we utilized multiple linear regression (MLR) to analyze the association between the risk of heat-related mortality and the city and its climatic characteristics. Results showed that the number of heat exposure days, GDP per capita, urban population ratio, proportion of elderly population, and climate zone were found to modify the estimate on heat effect, with an R2 of 0.71. These findings will be helpful for the creation of public policies protecting against high-temperature-induced mortalities.

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“…In accordance with previous publications, our strati ed analysis observed people over 75 years old were at greater risks related to large TV, suggesting higher vulnerability to temperature changes(Hu et al 2019;Zhang et al 2019b). In the context of global population ageing(Lee et al 2019;Yang et al 2021), cause-and group-speci c prevention strategies should be considered to enhance populations' temperature adaptability, especially in elderly people.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of daily and hourly temperature variability in association with all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in 45 US cities

Yan

Luo

Zhang

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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BackgroundTemperature variability (TV) has been widely associated with increased mortality risk and burden.Extensive researches have used the standard deviations of several days' daily maximum and minimum temperatures or hourly mean temperatures as daily and hourly TV measures (TV daily and TV hourly ).However, comparative analysis of daily and hourly TV related to cardiorespiratory mortality is still limited. MethodsWe collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 45 US metropolises, 1987-2000. A three-stage analyses were adopted to investigate TV-mortality associations using TV daily and TV hourly as exposure metrics. We rst applied a time-series quasi-Poisson regression to estimate location-speci c TV-mortality relationship, which were then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We additionally calculated attributable fractions as a re ection of total mortality burden associated with TV. Strati ed analyses by age were also performed to identify the susceptible group to TV-related risk. ResultsThere were a total of 15.4 million all-cause deaths, of which 6.1 million were from cardiovascular and 1.2 million were from respiratory causes. Per 1 °C increase in TV daily and TV hourly was associated with an increase of 0.53% (95% con dence interval: 0.31-0.76%) and 0.52% (0.26-0.79%) in cardiovascular mortality risks, 0.62% (0.26-0.98%) and 0.53% (0.13-0.94%) in respiratory mortality risks. Estimations of cardiovascular attributable fractions for TV daily and TV hourly were 2.43% (1.42-3.43%) vs 1.63% (0.82-2.43%), whereas respiratory attributable fractions were 3.07% (1.11-4.99%) vs 1.89% (0.43-3.34%). Both daily and hourly indexes showed approximately linear relationships with different mortality categories and similar lag patterns, but greater fractions were estimated using TV daily than those using TV hourly .People over 75 years old were relatively more vulnerable to TV-induced risks of mortality. ConclusionsBoth TV daily and TV hourly signi cantly increased all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality risks and burden. Daily TV metrics resembled hourly in risk effects, whilst greater mortality burden was found in TV daily than TV hourly . Our ndings may add signi cance to TV-mortality research and help to promote optimal health management strategies to better mitigate TV-related health effect.

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Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

Cited by 130 publications

References 58 publications

A Modelling Study on PM<sub>2.5</sub>-Related Health Impacts from Climate Change and Air Pollution Emission Control — China, 2010s and 2040s

A Modelling Study on PM<sub>2.5</sub>-Related Health Impacts from Climate Change and Air Pollution Emission Control — China, 2010s and 2040s

A New Method to Estimate Heat Exposure Days and Its Impacts in China

Comparative analysis of daily and hourly temperature variability in association with all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in 45 US cities

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