In this paper, we analyze the sensitivity of the optimal mixes to cost and variability associated with solar technologies and examine the role of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) combined to Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) together with time-space complementarity in reducing the adequacy risk—imposed by variable Renewable Energies (RE)—on the Moroccan electricity system. To do that, we model the optimal recommissioning of RE mixes including Photovoltaic (PV), wind energy and CSP without or with increasing levels of TES. Our objective is to maximize the RE production at a given cost, but also to limit the variance of the RE production stemming from meteorological fluctuations. This mean-variance analysis is a bi-objective optimization problem that is implemented in the Emathsizesmall4CLIMmathsizesmall modeling platform—which allows us to use climate data to simulate hourly Capacity Factors (CFs) and demand profiles adjusted to observations. We adapt this software to Morocco and its four electrical zones for the year 2018, add new CSP and TES simulation modules, perform some load reduction diagnostics, and account for the different rental costs of the three RE technologies by adding a maximum-cost constraint. We find that the risk decreases with the addition of TES to CSP, the more so as storage is increased keeping the mean capacity factor fixed. On the other hand, due to the higher cost of CSP compared to PV and wind, the maximum-cost constraint prevents the increase of the RE penetration without reducing the share of CSP compared to PV and wind and letting the risk increase in return. Thus, if small level of risk and higher penetrations are targeted, investment must be increased to install more CSP with TES. We also show that regional diversification is key to reduce the risk and that technological diversification is relevant when installing both PV and CSP without storage, but less so as the surplus of energy available for TES is increased and the CSP profiles flatten. Finally, we find that, thanks to TES, CSP is more suited than PV and wind to meet peak loads. This can be measured by the capacity credit, but not by the variance-based risk, suggesting that the latter is only a crude representation of the adequacy risk.
In this study, we examine how Battery Storage (BES) and Thermal Storage (TES) combined with solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies with an increased storage duration and rental cost together with diversification would influence the Moroccan mix and to what extent the variability (i.e., adequacy risk) can be reduced; this is done using recent (2013) cost data and under various penetration scenarios. To do this, we use MERRA-2 climate reanalysis to simulate hourly demand and capacity factors (CFs) of wind, solar PV and CSP without and with increasing storage capabilities—as defined by the CSP Solar Multiple (SM) and PV Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR). We adjust these time series to observations for the four Moroccan electrical zones over the year 2018. Our objective is to maximize the renewable (RE) penetration and minimize the imbalances between RE production and consumption considering three optimization strategies. We analyze mixes along Pareto fronts using the Mean-Variance Portfolio approach—implemented in the E4CLIM model—in which we add a maximum-cost constraint to take into account the different rental costs of wind, PV and CSP. We propose a method to calculate the rental cost of storage and production technologies taking into account the constraints on storage associated with the increase of SM and ILR in the added PV-BES and CSP-TES modules, keeping the mean solar CFs fixed. We perform some load bands-reduction diagnostics to assess the reliability benefits provided by each RE technology. We find that, at low penetrations, the maximum-cost budget is not reached because a small capacity is needed. The higher the ILR for PV, the larger the share of PV in the mix compared to wind and CSP without storage is removed completely. Between PV-BES and CSP-TES, the latter is preferred as it has larger storage capacity and thus stronger impact in reducing the adequacy risk. As additional BES are installed, more than TES, PV-BES is favored. At high penetrations, optimal mixes are impacted by cost, the more so as CSP (resp., PV) with high SM (resp., ILR) are installed. Wind is preferably installed due to its high mean CF compared to cost, followed by either PV-BES or CSP/CSP-TES. Scenarios without or with medium storage capacity favor CSP/CSP-TES, while high storage duration scenarios are dominated by low-cost PV-BES. However, scenarios ignoring the storage cost and constraints provide more weight to PV-BES whatever the penetration level. We also show that significant reduction of RE variability can only be achieved through geographical diversification. Technological complementarity may only help to reduce the variance when PV and CSP are both installed without or with a small amount of storage. However, the diversification effect is slightly smaller when the SM and ILR are increased and the covariances are reduced as well since mixes become less diversified.
Although climate change is an inherently global issue, its impacts will not be felt equally across Earth’s pressure belts and continental-scale regions. This study seeks to examine which areas are becoming warmer and experiencing drought, with a particular focus on Africa, in light of its low historical emissions but poor economic capacity for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and Morocco, whose conditional goal, which will be achieved with foreign assistance, is rated as “almost sufficient” but is not yet in compliance with the Paris Agreement’s goal. We also explore the consistency and sources of uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and analyze what changes from CMIP5—whose projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—to Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)-based scenarios for CMIP6. We find that strong forcing, with no additional climate policies, is projected to raise the mean annual temperature over Morocco for the long-term period by 6.25 °C. All CMIP6 models agree that warming (resp. drought) will be greater over land masses and poles (resp. tropical and coastal regions) than over oceans and equatorial regions (resp. high latitudes, equatorial, and monsoon zones), but less so on the intensity of changes.
<p>Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) can shift electricity over time using cheap Thermal Energy Storage (TES). However, the cost of CSP is still high. Conversely, the cost of Photovoltaic (PV) systems have fallen. However, the Battery Energy Storage (BES) used to mitigate the generation variability is uneconomical to utilize as a grid-scale storage. Moreover, in order to increase the operating hours of both solar technologies, one has to increase both TES capacity and CSP solar field compared to the electricity-generating turbine, as measured by the Solar Multiple (SM), and increase the BES capacity and PV module size relative to a fixed inverter capacity, as measured by the Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR). This increase the investment costs although the Levelized Cost of Electricity tends to be lowered by the higher capacity factor (CF). These differences between solar technologies must be accounted when designing an optimal prospective power supply system based on renewable energies (RE). Particularly, the utilization of CSP and PV with storage is widely suggested within the Moroccan strategy that aims at deploying 20% of its electrical capacity from solar energy by 2030. However, the share between PV and CSP and the amount of storage associated is still to be found. This study discuss objectively scenarios for solar integration in the electricity mix by evaluating the impact of rental cost and storage of CSP [1] and PV on the optimal mixes together with the role of time-space complementarity in reducing the adequacy risk. To do so, we simulate hourly CFs and load curves adjusted to observations for the four Moroccan electrical zones. We analyze mixes along Pareto fronts using the Mean-Variance approach -implemented in the E4CLIM model - in which the total cost of a mix is constrained to be lower than that of the actual 2018 mix [1].&#160; We find that wind gains a higher shares compared to solar technologies because wind is regular on average which involves less capacity to install. However, at low penetrations, the addition of TES to CSP decreases the risk &#8211; the more as SM is increased keeping the mean CF fixed &#8211; which makes CSP less variable than wind and favors its installation compared to PV. To prevent reaching the maximum-cost sooner at high penetrations, the share of CSP decreases compared to PV and wind. However, the larger the ILR, the larger the share of PV compared to wind and CSP-TES, particularly for SM<4 and CSP tends to replace PV with high ILRs at high penetrations. We also show that a strong RE variability reduction is achieved through spatial diversification and by taking into account correlations between PV and CSP capacities, but less so as the surplus of energy available for TES and BES is increased.</p><p>[1]: Bouramdane, A.-A.; Tantet, A.; Drobinski, P. Adequacy of Renewable Energy Mixes with Concentrated Solar Power and Photovoltaic in Morocco: Impact of Thermal Storage and Cost. Energies <strong>2020</strong>, 13, 5087.</p><div> <div> <div>L&#8217;email a bien &#233;t&#233; copi&#233;</div> </div> </div><div> <div> <div>L&#8217;email a bien &#233;t&#233; copi&#233;</div> </div> </div><div><img></div>
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