Transition Énergétique: Problématiques de Recherche

Bouramdane, Ayat-Allah

doi:10.5281/zenodo.7324462

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“…For instance, depending on the model, the same location could become significantly wetter or dryer under the SSP2-4.5 global warming scenario (Figures 3-5). However, results are not only influenced by model uncertainty but also by uncertainty pertaining to forcing conditions, the climate system's intrinsic variability, and the intra-daily parametrization of climate variables of relevance for renewable production and electricity consumption, which is not resolved by CMIP5/6 projections (see discussion on the sources of uncertainties associated with future energy mixes in (Chapter 5 [11]) which is also raised in [106]).…”

Section: General Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of CMIP6 Multi-Model Projections Worldwide: Which Regions Are Getting Warmer and Are Going through a Drought in Africa and Morocco? What Changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6?

Bouramdane

2022

Sustainability

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Although climate change is an inherently global issue, its impacts will not be felt equally across Earth’s pressure belts and continental-scale regions. This study seeks to examine which areas are becoming warmer and experiencing drought, with a particular focus on Africa, in light of its low historical emissions but poor economic capacity for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and Morocco, whose conditional goal, which will be achieved with foreign assistance, is rated as “almost sufficient” but is not yet in compliance with the Paris Agreement’s goal. We also explore the consistency and sources of uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and analyze what changes from CMIP5—whose projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—to Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)-based scenarios for CMIP6. We find that strong forcing, with no additional climate policies, is projected to raise the mean annual temperature over Morocco for the long-term period by 6.25 °C. All CMIP6 models agree that warming (resp. drought) will be greater over land masses and poles (resp. tropical and coastal regions) than over oceans and equatorial regions (resp. high latitudes, equatorial, and monsoon zones), but less so on the intensity of changes.

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Section: General Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of CMIP6 Multi-Model Projections Worldwide: Which Regions Are Getting Warmer and Are Going through a Drought in Africa and Morocco? What Changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6?

Bouramdane

2022

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Transition Énergétique: Problématiques de Recherche

Cited by 1 publication

References 0 publications

Assessment of CMIP6 Multi-Model Projections Worldwide: Which Regions Are Getting Warmer and Are Going through a Drought in Africa and Morocco? What Changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6?

Assessment of CMIP6 Multi-Model Projections Worldwide: Which Regions Are Getting Warmer and Are Going through a Drought in Africa and Morocco? What Changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6?

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