Assessment of CMIP6 Multi-Model Projections Worldwide: Which Regions Are Getting Warmer and Are Going through a Drought in Africa and Morocco? What Changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6?

Abstract

Although climate change is an inherently global issue, its impacts will not be felt equally across Earth’s pressure belts and continental-scale regions. This study seeks to examine which areas are becoming warmer and experiencing drought, with a particular focus on Africa, in light of its low historical emissions but poor economic capacity for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and Morocco, whose conditional goal, which will be achieved with foreign assistance, is rated as “almost sufficient” but is not yet in compliance with the Paris Agreement’s goal. We also explore the consistency and sources of uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and analyze what changes from CMIP5—whose projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—to Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)-based scenarios for CMIP6. We find that strong forcing, with no additional climate policies, is projected to raise the mean annual temperature over Morocco for the long-term period by 6.25 °C. All CMIP6 models agree that warming (resp. drought) will be greater over land masses and poles (resp. tropical and coastal regions) than over oceans and equatorial regions (resp. high latitudes, equatorial, and monsoon zones), but less so on the intensity of changes.

Study on the Crop Suitability and Planting Structure Optimization in Typical Grain Production Areas under the Influence of Human Activities and Climate Change: A Case Study of the Naoli River Basin in Northeast China

“…The estimation was based on 2021 planting data and environmental variables, combined with bioclimatic variables under future climate change for prediction. The study used the CMIP6 implemented by the WCRP [37]. To provide researchers with more climate model references, CMIP6 upgraded RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 to SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, and added new emission patterns: SSP1-1.9, SSP4-3.4, SSP5-3.4, and SSP3-7.0.…”

Optimal Water Management Strategies: Paving the Way for Sustainability in Smart Cities

“…(C6) Long-Term Sustainability: Will the strategy maintain its effectiveness and benefits over the long term [67]? Is it resilient to changing conditions and future challenges [68,69] (SMRY [70])? 7.…”

“…• Scope of Criteria: The criteria used for evaluation were carefully selected, but there may be other relevant criteria that were not included in this study. Future research could explore additional criteria that may impact water management strategies, including the impact of climate change [68,69].…”

Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

“…For example, considering North America, studies with climate projections of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show an increase in the duration and frequency of droughts in the southeast [9], central and northern [10][11][12][13][14] United States, and southwestern Canada [15]. Similarly, drought events are projected to intensify in parts of Asia [11][12][13][14]16,17], Europe [11,18], Oceania [11,13,14,18], Africa [11,14,19], and South America [11,13,14,18,[20][21][22][23][24][25].…”