Utility-Scale PV-Battery versus CSP-Thermal Storage in Morocco: Storage and Cost Effect under Penetration Scenarios

Abstract

In this study, we examine how Battery Storage (BES) and Thermal Storage (TES) combined with solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies with an increased storage duration and rental cost together with diversification would influence the Moroccan mix and to what extent the variability (i.e., adequacy risk) can be reduced; this is done using recent (2013) cost data and under various penetration scenarios. To do this, we use MERRA-2 climate reanalysis to simulate hourly demand and capacity factors (CFs) of wind, solar PV and CSP without and with increasing storage capabilities—as defined by the CSP Solar Multiple (SM) and PV Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR). We adjust these time series to observations for the four Moroccan electrical zones over the year 2018. Our objective is to maximize the renewable (RE) penetration and minimize the imbalances between RE production and consumption considering three optimization strategies. We analyze mixes along Pareto fronts using the Mean-Variance Portfolio approach—implemented in the E4CLIM model—in which we add a maximum-cost constraint to take into account the different rental costs of wind, PV and CSP. We propose a method to calculate the rental cost of storage and production technologies taking into account the constraints on storage associated with the increase of SM and ILR in the added PV-BES and CSP-TES modules, keeping the mean solar CFs fixed. We perform some load bands-reduction diagnostics to assess the reliability benefits provided by each RE technology. We find that, at low penetrations, the maximum-cost budget is not reached because a small capacity is needed. The higher the ILR for PV, the larger the share of PV in the mix compared to wind and CSP without storage is removed completely. Between PV-BES and CSP-TES, the latter is preferred as it has larger storage capacity and thus stronger impact in reducing the adequacy risk. As additional BES are installed, more than TES, PV-BES is favored. At high penetrations, optimal mixes are impacted by cost, the more so as CSP (resp., PV) with high SM (resp., ILR) are installed. Wind is preferably installed due to its high mean CF compared to cost, followed by either PV-BES or CSP/CSP-TES. Scenarios without or with medium storage capacity favor CSP/CSP-TES, while high storage duration scenarios are dominated by low-cost PV-BES. However, scenarios ignoring the storage cost and constraints provide more weight to PV-BES whatever the penetration level. We also show that significant reduction of RE variability can only be achieved through geographical diversification. Technological complementarity may only help to reduce the variance when PV and CSP are both installed without or with a small amount of storage. However, the diversification effect is slightly smaller when the SM and ILR are increased and the covariances are reduced as well since mixes become less diversified.

Assessment of CMIP6 Multi-Model Projections Worldwide: Which Regions Are Getting Warmer and Are Going through a Drought in Africa and Morocco? What Changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6?

“…Most studies in the field of climate change have only focused on CMIP3 [57] and CMIP5 scenarios [58]. Bouramdane et al [11] (Chapter 5) examined the effects that projected climate change will have on the regional Moroccan mix by the end of the twentyfirst century (2071-2100) in comparison to the historical period , compared this effect to the effect of the rental cost in the context of cost reduction of low carbon technologies, assuming a business-as-usual world in which nothing is done to combat climate change (RCP8.5), and highlighted the conditions for climate-resilient renewable mixes. Recent studies have examined how climate change affects the best locations for solar photovoltaic and concentrated solar power plants [59], as well as offshore [60] and onshore [61] wind farms, using a multi-criteria decision-making framework.…”

“…The EURO-CORDEX [96] and MED-CORDEX [97] provide regional climate projections for Europe and the Mediterranean region, respectively, as part of the global CORDEX framework. Another method of downscaling is called "statistical downscaling", which involves using observed data to derive a statistical relationship between the global and local climates (for additional information, see (Chapter 2, Page 60) [11]).…”

“…However, different parts of the world are affected differently by climate change. These regional changes are expected to have an impact on our natural world [5,6], our energy systems [7], our economy [8], as well as pose a number of social threats [9] if we fail to halve GHG emissions this decade [10]-e.g., by examining Photovoltaic (PV), wind, and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) integration, without and with different capabilities of thermal energy storage [11] (Chapter 3) (SMRY. [12]), examining which dispatchable solar technology (i.e., CSP versus PV with different thermal and battery energy storage durations) reduces the use of conventional generators more in optimal mixes with different levels of renewable penetration and variability and how that impacts the benefits of spatio-temporal complementarity [11] (Chapter 4) (SMRY.…”

“…These regional changes are expected to have an impact on our natural world [5,6], our energy systems [7], our economy [8], as well as pose a number of social threats [9] if we fail to halve GHG emissions this decade [10]-e.g., by examining Photovoltaic (PV), wind, and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) integration, without and with different capabilities of thermal energy storage [11] (Chapter 3) (SMRY. [12]), examining which dispatchable solar technology (i.e., CSP versus PV with different thermal and battery energy storage durations) reduces the use of conventional generators more in optimal mixes with different levels of renewable penetration and variability and how that impacts the benefits of spatio-temporal complementarity [11] (Chapter 4) (SMRY. [13,14]), and exploring which renewable technology is sensitive or resilient to climate change and how the latter affects the seasonal and annual patterns of electricity consumption [11] (Chapter 5)-and immediately scale-up adaptation [15,16]-e.g., by developing agrivoltaic systems [17,18] and water desalination projects [19,20].…”

“…[12]), examining which dispatchable solar technology (i.e., CSP versus PV with different thermal and battery energy storage durations) reduces the use of conventional generators more in optimal mixes with different levels of renewable penetration and variability and how that impacts the benefits of spatio-temporal complementarity [11] (Chapter 4) (SMRY. [13,14]), and exploring which renewable technology is sensitive or resilient to climate change and how the latter affects the seasonal and annual patterns of electricity consumption [11] (Chapter 5)-and immediately scale-up adaptation [15,16]-e.g., by developing agrivoltaic systems [17,18] and water desalination projects [19,20].…”