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adaptation, adaptive capacity, exposure, global environmental change, integrated assessment, modeling, sensitivity, stakeholders, sustainability, vulnerability,

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This article provides a comparative institutional analysis between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting systems in the Pacific and southern Africa with a focus on how scientific information is connected to the decision-making process. With billions of dollars in infrastructure and private property and human health and well-being at risk during ENSO events, forecasting systems have begun to be embraced by managers and firms at multiple levels. The study suggests that such systems need to consciously support the coproduction of knowledge. A critical component of such coproduction seems to be managing the boundaries between science and policy and across disciplines, scale, and knowledges to create information that is salient, credible, and legitimate to multiple audiences. This research suggests institutional mechanisms that appear to be useful in managing such boundaries, including mechanisms for structuring convening, translation, collaboration, and mediation functions.

Improvements in the ability to model El Niñ o and other large-scale interannual climate variations have allowed for the development of seasonal climate forecasts, predicting rainfall and temperature anomalies for many places around the world. These forecasts have allowed developing countries to predict shortfalls in grain yields, with benefits for food security. Several countries communicate the forecasts to subsistence farmers, which could allow them to mitigate the effects of drought on their harvests by adapting their cropping decisions accordingly. However, it has not been demonstrated that subsistence farmers benefit from having access to the forecasts. Here we present evidence of subsistence farmers using the forecasts over multiple years to make different decisions and significantly improving their harvests when they do so. In a controlled study, farmers in Zimbabwe who reported adapting their farming methods to seasonal climate forecasts significantly improved their harvests over baseline amounts. Moreover, farmers who had attended a brief workshop and learned more about the forecasts were significantly more likely to use the forecasts than were farmers who learned of the forecasts through nonparticipatory channels.climate change ͉ climate forecasting ͉ sustainable development

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