Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe

Patt, Anthony; Gwata, Chiedza

doi:10.1016/s0959-3780(02)00013-4

Cited by 263 publications

(212 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…There is a recognised need to develop an adaptation science that is not limited by discipline (Klein et al 2014;Smit and Wandel 2006;Bhaskar et al 2010) and is able to produce 'salient, credible and legitimate' knowledge that is relevant and responsive to the multiple temporal and spatial scales and the social, economic, political and environmental processes of agricultural systems (Keating and McCown 2001;Patt and Gwata 2002;Meinke et al 2009). This is evident for example in the Future Earth strategic research agenda (Future Earth 2014), and in a growing variety of 'climate service' initiatives that seek to combine knowledge and disciplinary insights in contributing towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation planning (WMO 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

Beveridge

Challinor

2018

Climatic Change

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A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Cropclimate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Cropmodelling studies have projected a 7-15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1-5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder's engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

Beveridge

Challinor

2018

Climatic Change

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“…Recent theoretical and empirical work suggests that ambiguity aversion may negatively affect investments in insurance, for example (Bryan 2010). In Zimbabwe, farmers have been found to systematically underestimate the risk of drought and to underestimate their own capacity to adapt to it (Patt and Gwata 2002). This evidence is suggestive, although little is known empirically about the way in which changes in the frequency or severity of climate shocks affect the appropriateness of adaptive responses.…”

Section: Exposure Sensitivity and Household Capacity To Adapt To CLmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this context, Patt and Gwata (2002) identify six factors that are considered critical if climate forecasts are to be effective in strengthening rural households' ability to adapt to climate change. To induce the desired effect on farmer behavior, climate information needs to be (1) considered credible, (2) communicated by agents who are considered legitimate (that is, not beholden to special interests), (3) calculated at appropriately detailed (that is, local) scales, (4) expressed in terms that the audience can understand, (5) appropriately timed, and (6) relevant to the decisions that farmers actively make.…”

Section: Information For Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rural Households in a Changing Climate

Báez¹,

Kronick²,

Mason³

2013

Policy Research Working Papers

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E SIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. This paper argues that climate change poses two distinct, if related, sets of challenges for poor rural households: challenges related to the increasing frequency and severity of weather shocks and challenges related to long-term shifts in temperature, rainfall patterns, water availability, and other environmental factors. Within this framework, we examine evidence from existing empirical literature to compose an initial picture of household-level strategies for adapting to climate change in rural settings. We find that although households possess numerous strategies for managing climate shocks and shifts, their adaptive capacity is insufficient for the task of maintaining -let alone improving -household welfare. We describe the role of public policy in fortifying the ability of rural households to adapt to a changing climate.JEL Classification: Q12, Q54, O13

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“…Rather early, Patt and Gwata [32] wrote that making forecasts useful to decision-makers, especially subsistence farmers in developing countries, remained a significant challenge. They discussed a set of six constraints limiting the usefulness of forecasts: credibility, legitimacy, scale, cognitive capacity, procedural and institutional barriers, and available choices.…”

Section: Climate Vulnerabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of Traditional Weather/Climate Knowledge by Farmers in the South-Western Free State of South Africa: Agrometeorological Learning by Scientists

2013

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Abstract:The variety of natural indicators, associated with weather forecasting and climate prediction, as used by farmers in the South-Western Free State province of South Africa, is described. Most farmers in this area were not familiar with the application of weather forecasts/climate predictions for agricultural production, or with other science-based agrometeorological products. They relied almost fully on their experience and traditional knowledge for farming decision making. The indicators for traditional knowledge are demonstrated here in broad terms, relying on the stories and indications from observations and years of experience of their use by the farmers. These means of engagement with the natural environment, are skills not well understood by most scientists, but useful to the farmers. They range from the constellation of stars, animal behavior, cloud cover and type, blossoming of certain indigenous trees, appearance and disappearance of reptiles, to migration of bird species and many others. It is suggested that some short-term traditional forecasts/predictions may be successfully merged with science-based climate predictions. The traditional knowledge and its use, reported on in this paper, is what scientists learned from farmers. Berkes was right that scholars have wasted too much time and effort on a OPEN ACCESSAtmosphere 2013, 4 384 science versus traditional knowledge debate; we should reframe it instead as a science and traditional knowledge dialogue and partnership. The complications of a changing climate make this even more necessary.

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Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe

Cited by 263 publications

References 25 publications

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

Rural Households in a Changing Climate

Use of Traditional Weather/Climate Knowledge by Farmers in the South-Western Free State of South Africa: Agrometeorological Learning by Scientists

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