Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

Abstract

A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Cropclimate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Cropmodelling studies have projected a 7-15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1-5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder's engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.

Optimizing Traditional Cropping Systems Under Climate Change: A Case of Maize Landraces and Bambara Groundnut

“…A gap between the potential and practical realization of adaptation exists, and the evidence from our study supports the view that adaptation strategies need to be both climateinformed and context-specific to be viable (Beveridge et al, 2018;Carter et al, 2018). The cultivation of traditional crops has been done for millennia; however, to our knowledge, no study has quantified the yield and WUE responses in an intercrop system and under the impacts of climate change.…”

“…To better represent adaptation, there is a need to expand the research to consider other management strategies (e.g., other traditional crop species, different cropping sequences, fertilization, rainwater harvesting and soil conservation techniques) (Seyoum et al, 2017). In addition, more system (agroecosystem) and place-based approaches that can represent local context, knowledge and aspects of food and nutrition security other than availability (e.g., nutrition, access, utilization and stability) may be required (Beveridge et al, 2018). To increase the contribution of agriculture to improving food and nutrition security, poverty reduction, and enhance rural economic development, climate impact modeling studies should be coupled with social, economic and environmental system models.…”

“…Using an ex-ante approach in APSIM, the current study assessed the productivity and water use of a maize landrace -bambara groundnut intercrop under changing climate and in response to different management options. APSIM has been used widely to study impacts of climate change on crop growth and productivity across Africa (Beveridge et al, 2018;Duku et al, 2018;Xiao et al, 2020). However, its application for studying intercrop systems remains scanty, with no known research on its application for climate change studies.…”

Soil Phosphorus Modeling for Modern Agriculture Requires Balance of Science and Practicality: A Perspective

“…It is predicted that agricultural practices will have to adapt to changes in climate; therefore, new P management strategies will need to be established. Such strategies should take a multidisciplinary approach, account for climatic change, and be relevant to local challenges (Beveridge et al, 2018). Agricultural systems models could also be used to determine the future management of P fertilizer with the projected effects of climate change, provided the data are available.…”

Bacillus subtilis CBR05 for Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) Fruits in South Korea as a Novel Plant Probiotic Bacterium (PPB): Implications from Total Phenolics, Flavonoids, and Carotenoids Content for Fruit Quality

“…The nutrient contents in tomato fruits depend on the environment in which they grow [9,10]. Nowadays, the use of crop modeling to identify effective farmer strategies to counteract adverse future climatic conditions has become a standard in climate change impact assessments [11][12][13]. Over the past few years, a variety of methods have been proposed to comprehensively assess fruit quality and its relationship with water, including principal component analysis (PCA), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), gray relational analysis (GRA), and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) [14][15][16][17].…”