Resumo -A partir das indicações do último relatório do IPCC (International Pannel of Climatic Change), foram feitas várias simulações e avaliados os impactos que um aumento na temperatura média do ar de 1 o C, 3 o C e 5,8 o C e um incremento de 15% na precipitação pluvial teriam na potencialidade da cafeicultura brasileira, definida pelo atual zoneamento agroclimático do café (Coffea arábica L.) nos Estados de Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo e Paraná. Os resultados indicaram uma redução de área apta para a cultura superior a 95% em Goiás, Minas Gerais e São Paulo, e de 75% no Paraná, no caso de um aumento na temperatura de 5,8 o C. Esses resultados são válidos se mantidas as atuais características genéticas e fisiológicas das cultivares de café arábica utilizadas no Brasil, que têm como limite de tolerância temperaturas médias anuais entre 18 o C e 23 o C.Termos para indexação: Coffea arabica, zoneamento agrícola, aumento de temperatura. Climatic changes impact in agroclimatic zonning of coffee in BrazilAbstract -According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global temperature is supposed to increase 1°C to 5.8°C and the rainfall 15% in the Tropical area. This paper analyses the effect that these possible scenarios would have in the agroclimatic zoning of the arabic coffee (Coffea arabica L.) main plantation areas in Brazil. The results indicated a reduction of suitable areas greater than 95% in Goiás, Minas Gerais and São Paulo and about 75% for Paraná in the case of a temperature increase of 5.8 o C. These results presume that all the physiological characteristics of the crop will be the same for the varieties analyzed and that the ideal climatic condition for economic development is mean annual temperatures between 18 o C and 23 o C.Index terms: climatic change , agroclimatic zoning, Coffea arabica. IntroduçãoA problemática das mudanças climáticas globais levou a Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) e a UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) a criarem o IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) em 1988. Segundo o IPCC, no século XX, houve um aumento de 0,65 o C na média da temperatura global, sendo este mais pronunciado na década de 90. Quanto à precipitação, o aumento variou de 0,2% a 0,3% na região tropical, compreendida entre 10 o de latitude Norte e 10 o de latitude Sul. As causas dessas variações podem ser de ordem natural ou antropogênica, ou uma soma das duas (IPCC, 2004).Por meio de modelos matemáticos baseados em dados registrados dos oceanos, biosfera e atmosfera, está previsto um aumento entre 1,4 o C e 5,8ºC na temperatura média global até o final do século XXI (IPCC, 2004). A magnitudes de tal previsão é ainda incerta, pois pouco se sabe sobre os processos de trocas de calor, de carbono e de radiação entre os diversos setores do sistema Terra. Segundo Kalnay & Cai (2003), a temperatura poderá subir em até 0,088 o C por década, chegando próximo da situação mais otimista indicada no relatório do IPCC.Com o aquecimento global, em um futuro pr...

Enhancing the capability of both standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for quantifying wet and dry events under distinct climate conditions is of paramount importance. The different recommendations of recent studies regarding the best distribution to calculate the SPEI and the lack of studies addressing the effect of different parameters estimation methods on the SPI motivated us to apply and adapt distinct testing methodologies to select candidate models for calculating these standardized drought indices (SDI). The study is based on two data sets. The first represents a tropical–subtropical region of Brazil. The second comprises the same weather stations that were used for developing the original version of the SPEI. The study also emphasized the performance of the models within the range of typical SDI values [−2.0 : 2.0]. Along with goodness‐of‐fit tests, we calculated the mean absolute errors between the indices values estimated from the candidate distributions, and their corresponding theoretical values derived from the standard normal distribution. The two‐parameter gamma and the generalized extreme value distributions are, respectively, recommended for general use in SPI and SPEI algorithms (1–12‐month timescales). The unbiased probability weighted moments are recommended to estimate the distributions parameters. The study also described a trade‐off between choosing the best model for the central part and for the tails of the distributions. This trade‐off suggests that the methodologies used to select models for the SDI algorithms may have to decide which part of the distribution (central or tails) should be emphasized. The behaviour of the errors among different wet/dry categories showed that both indices were only capable of representing drought and floods in a similar probabilistic way within the range [−2.0 : 2.0]. This feature supports our decision to emphasize model performances within such range.

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18 • C and 22 • C, annual water deficit less than 100 mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1 • C) less than 25%. An area is said to have "low climatic risks" for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1 • C and 4 • C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3 • C in

The relevance of coagulation abnormalities in ischemic stroke remains uncertain. The purpose of this study was to identify abnormal patterns of coagulation in established ischemic stroke. We measured coagulation parameters in 86 patients with acute ischemic stroke: 10 lacunar, 55 atherothrombotic and 21 cardioembolic. Statistical comparisons were made between different stroke groups and between all stroke patients and 60 healthy controls. A decrease in functional antithrombin III and plasminogen and an increase in thrombin-antithrombin III complexes, total protein S, tissue plasminogen activator, plasminogen activator inhibitor and D-dimer were observed in the stroke group (p < 0.05). A positive correlation was found between tissue plasminogen activator and thrombin-antithrombin III levels in cardioembolic stroke (p < 0.05). Protein C levels showed significant differences between the three groups, and in the cardioembolic group they were lower than in controls (p < 0.05). Antiphospholipid antibodies were positive in two cases. We conclude that activation of coagulation and fibrinolytic pathways was observed during the acute phase of ischemic stroke. Protein C activity is different in the three types of strokes analyzed, and higher levels seem to be associated with lacunar lesions. Antiphospholipid antibodies do not seem to play an important role in the pathogenesis of stroke in a nonselected population.

ResumoO objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar zonas pluviometricamente homogêneas no Estado da Bahia e analisar as condições climá-ticas de cada zona entre 1981 e 2010. Foi aplicada a técnica de mineração de dados, Clusterização (agrupamento de dados), por meio do uso do algoritmo k-means, para transformação das séries históricas de precipitação em cinco zonas pluviometricamente homogêneas, em resposta à orografia, maritimidade e sistemas meteorológicos atuantes na região. Foram utilizados dados de médias mensais de precipitação de 92 estações meteorológicas. Os resultados apontam que as zonas mais secas estão situadas na parte central, de norte a sul do estado, principalmente ao norte com os menores volumes anuais, em torno de 480 mm. A zona localizada ao norte do estado é contrastante com a faixa litorânea, em que são observados os maiores volumes anuais de precipitação (1.380 mm aproximadamente). A alta variabilidade pluviométrica ocorre em quase todas as zonas, principalmente em duas do semiárido com coeficientes de variação (CV) iguais a 42 e 28%. Diferencia-se dessa característica a zona pertencente à faixa litorânea, que apresenta regularidade de chuvas durante todo o ano e CV de 15%. As estações chuvosas e secas estão bem definidas. Os valores de precipitação da estação chuvosa representam em torno de 81% dos totais anuais, com destaque para as zonas situadas no centro-oeste e oeste do estado, com 95 e 96% dos totais anuais.Palavras-chave: mineração de dados, clusterização, variabilidade pluviométrica. Analysis of rainfall homogeneous areas in time series of precipitation in the State of Bahia, Brazil AbstractThe aim of this study was to identify rainfall homogeneous areas in the State of Bahia, Brazil and analyze the climatic conditions of each area for the period between 1981 and 2010. It was applied a data mining technique, clustering (grouping of data), by using the k-means algorithm for transforming time series of precipitation in five rainfall homogeneous areas, in response to topography, maritime dimension, and weather systems operating in the region of study. Data of average monthly rainfall of 92 meteorological stations were used. The results indicate that the driest areas are situated in the central part of the state, from north to south, mainly in the north with the lowest annual volumes, around 480 mm. The area located in the north of the state contrasts with that one located on the coast, where the largest volumes of annual rainfall of the study were observed (approximately 1.380 mm). The high rainfall variability occurs in almost all areas, especially in two of those of semiarid ones with Coefficients of Variation (CV) reaching 42 and 28%. This characteristic differs from the area belonging to the coastal area, which presents regular rainfall during all the year and a CV of 15%. The rainy and dry seasons are well defined. Precipitation values of the rainy season accounts for about 81% of the annual total, with emphasis on the zones located in the central-west and west of the state with 95...

Recipients of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) are at high risk for invasive mold infections (IMI). The goal of the study is to describe the incidence and outcome of IMI in patients after allo-HSCT in a large cohort of patients receiving anti-mold prophylaxis. We conducted a retrospective review of 988 consecutive adults who underwent allo-HSCT in our center from 2008 through 2014. Standard prophylaxis consisted of micafungin 150 mg IV daily from admission to day +7 ± 3 followed by voriconazole until day +75 to +100. Cases meeting criteria for proven or probable IMI according to EORTC-MSG criteria were included. Median age at HSCT was 54 years. The most common diagnoses were acute myeloid leukemia (n = 351, 36%) and lymphoid malignancies (n = 248, 25%). Matched related or unrelated donors (URD) were used in 686 (69%) patients, mismatched URD in 142 (14%) and cord blood units in 154 (16%). Twenty-one patients were diagnosed with IMI after allo-HSCT, 19 probable and 2 proven, and one patient was diagnosed postmortem. Microbiological diagnosis was established in 9 cases, 5 of them being Aspergillus. One-year cumulative incidence (CI) of IMI was 1.6% (95% CI 0.9-2.5) while 12-week overall survival after IMI was 39% (95% CI 24-65) Analyzed by disease, there was a trend for a higher 1-year CI of IMI in patients with ALL (5% [95% CI 1.6-11.4]) when compared with AML (1.4%), MDS (1.5%) and lymphoma (1.2%), P = .06. The 1-year CI of IMI after transplantation is low in patients receiving anti-mold prophylaxis with micafungin bridged to voriconazole, although these infections are associated with a higher risk of mortality.

The intensification of drought incidence is one of the most important threats of the 21 st century with significant effects on food security. Accordingly, there is a need to improve the understanding of the regional impacts of climate change on this hazard. This study assessed long-term trends in probability-

Ten-year seasonal climate reforecasts over South America are obtained using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 40 km resolution, driven by the large-scale forcing from the global atmospheric model of the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies. The objective of this work is to evaluate these regional reforecasts. The dataset is comprised of four-month seasonal forecasts performed on a monthly basis between 2001 and 2010. An ensemble of fi ve members is constructed from fi ve slightly different initial conditions to partially reduce the uncertainty in the seasonal forecasts. The seasonal mean precipitation and 2-meter temperature forecasts are compared with the observations. The comparison shows that, in general, forecasted precipitation is underestimated in the central part of the continent in the austral summer, whereas the forecasted 2 meter temperature is underestimated in most parts of the continent and throughout the year. Skill scores show higher skill in the northern part of the continent and lower skill in the southern part of the continent, but mixed skill signs are seen in the central part of the continent. During the El Niño and La Niña seasons, the forecast skill scores clearly increase. The downscaling of the Eta model seasonal forecasts provides added value over the driver global model forecasts, especially during rainy periods.