Resumo -A partir das indicações do último relatório do IPCC (International Pannel of Climatic Change), foram feitas várias simulações e avaliados os impactos que um aumento na temperatura média do ar de 1 o C, 3 o C e 5,8 o C e um incremento de 15% na precipitação pluvial teriam na potencialidade da cafeicultura brasileira, definida pelo atual zoneamento agroclimático do café (Coffea arábica L.) nos Estados de Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo e Paraná. Os resultados indicaram uma redução de área apta para a cultura superior a 95% em Goiás, Minas Gerais e São Paulo, e de 75% no Paraná, no caso de um aumento na temperatura de 5,8 o C. Esses resultados são válidos se mantidas as atuais características genéticas e fisiológicas das cultivares de café arábica utilizadas no Brasil, que têm como limite de tolerância temperaturas médias anuais entre 18 o C e 23 o C.Termos para indexação: Coffea arabica, zoneamento agrícola, aumento de temperatura. Climatic changes impact in agroclimatic zonning of coffee in BrazilAbstract -According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global temperature is supposed to increase 1°C to 5.8°C and the rainfall 15% in the Tropical area. This paper analyses the effect that these possible scenarios would have in the agroclimatic zoning of the arabic coffee (Coffea arabica L.) main plantation areas in Brazil. The results indicated a reduction of suitable areas greater than 95% in Goiás, Minas Gerais and São Paulo and about 75% for Paraná in the case of a temperature increase of 5.8 o C. These results presume that all the physiological characteristics of the crop will be the same for the varieties analyzed and that the ideal climatic condition for economic development is mean annual temperatures between 18 o C and 23 o C.Index terms: climatic change , agroclimatic zoning, Coffea arabica. IntroduçãoA problemática das mudanças climáticas globais levou a Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) e a UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) a criarem o IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) em 1988. Segundo o IPCC, no século XX, houve um aumento de 0,65 o C na média da temperatura global, sendo este mais pronunciado na década de 90. Quanto à precipitação, o aumento variou de 0,2% a 0,3% na região tropical, compreendida entre 10 o de latitude Norte e 10 o de latitude Sul. As causas dessas variações podem ser de ordem natural ou antropogênica, ou uma soma das duas (IPCC, 2004).Por meio de modelos matemáticos baseados em dados registrados dos oceanos, biosfera e atmosfera, está previsto um aumento entre 1,4 o C e 5,8ºC na temperatura média global até o final do século XXI (IPCC, 2004). A magnitudes de tal previsão é ainda incerta, pois pouco se sabe sobre os processos de trocas de calor, de carbono e de radiação entre os diversos setores do sistema Terra. Segundo Kalnay & Cai (2003), a temperatura poderá subir em até 0,088 o C por década, chegando próximo da situação mais otimista indicada no relatório do IPCC.Com o aquecimento global, em um futuro pr...

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Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18 • C and 22 • C, annual water deficit less than 100 mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1 • C) less than 25%. An area is said to have "low climatic risks" for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1 • C and 4 • C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3 • C in

-Background: Data on the prevalence of primitive reflexes (PR) in adulthood, their pathological significance and relationship to age and cognition are contro v e r s i a l . Objective: To study the re l a t i o nship between PR and cognition in 30 patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) and 154 control subj e c t s . Method: Diagnosis of probable AD was based on DSM-IV, NINCDS-ADRDA, and CAMDEX criteria. Primitive reflexes were quantified from zero (absent) to 1 (mild) or 2 (markedly present). The Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument -Short Form (CASI-S) was used to evaluate registration, temporal orientation, verbal fluency and recall. A drawing test was added. Results: Most frequent PR among demented and controls were suck (77% and 62%, respectively) and snout (60% and 27%), followed by glabellar (30% and 19%), paratonia (37% and 5%), and palmomental (23% and 5%). None of controls had more than t h ree PR. Frequency of PR tended to increase with age and cognitive deterioration. Grasp and Babinski responses were found only in dementia patients. Primitive reflexes were not correlated with each other, except snout with suck, and snout with glabellar re f l e x . Conclusion: The finding of grasp and Babinski sign, or the presence of more than three primitive signs, particularly the combination of paratonia, snout, suck, and palmomental reflexes strongly suggests brain dysfunction, especially when these signs are marked and accompanied by deficits in orientation, recall, verbal fluency, and constructional praxis.KEY WORDS: primitive reflexes, aging, dementia, Alzheimer's disease, cognitive tests.Reflexos primitivos e função cognitiva RESUMO -Contexto: A prevalência e significado patológico dos reflexos primitivos (RP) no adulto, bem como sua relação com a idade e a cognição, são questões contro v e r s a s . Objetivo: Estudar a relação entre RP e cognição em 30 pacientes com doença de Alzheimer (DA) e 154 sujeitos controles norm a i s . M é t o d o :O diagnóstico de DA baseou-se nos critérios DSM-IV, NINCDS-ADRDA e CAMDEX. Os RP foram quantificados de 0 (ausente) a 1 (leve) ou 2 (acentuado). CASI-S (Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument -Short Form ) foi usado para avaliar o re g i s t ro, orientação temporal, fluência verbal e evocação. Um teste de cópia de pentágonos foi acrescentado . Resultados: Os RP mais frequentes nos pacientes e controles foram o de sucção (77% e 62%, respectivamente) e "snout" (60% e 27%), seguidos do glabelar (30% e 19%), paratonia (37% e 5%) e palmomentoniano (23% e 5%). Nenhum sujeito controle teve mais que três RP. A frequência dos RP tendeu a aumentar com a idade e a deterioração cognitiva. O reflexo de preensão e o sinal de Babinski foram encontrados apenas nos pacientes com DA. Os RP não se correlacionaram uns com os o u t ros, exceto o reflexo "snout" com o de sucção e com o glabelar. Conclusão: O achado de reflexo de preensão e sinal de Babinski, ou a presença de mais de três sinais primitivos, particularmente a combinação de paratonia e reflexos "snout", s...

-O b j e c t i v e:To determine CASI-S accuracy in the diagnosis of dementia. M e t h o d: The Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument -Short Form (CASI-S) was applied in 43 Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and 74 normal controls. AD diagnosis was based on DSM-IV, NINCDS-ADRDA, and CAMDEX. CASI-S includes: registration, temporal orientation, verbal fluency (4-legged animals in 30s), and recall (3 words). Its maximum score is 33 points. A copy of 2 pentagons was added. Results: ROC curve showed an accuracy of 0.87, with standard error of 0.032, and 95% confidence intervall between 0.795 and 0.925. The cut-off score for cognitive deficit was 23, with sensitivity of 76.7%, specificity 86.5%, positive likelihood ratio (LR) 5.68, and negative LR 0.27. The cut-off score for subjects 70 years or older was 20, with sensitivity of 71.4% and specificity 97.1%. C o n c l u s i o n: CASI-S is a practical test, with high specificity, particularly in individuals above 70 years of age. The adding of the drawing test did not improve its accuracy.