A B S T R A C TThis paper shows an integrated assessment for energy planning and climate change mitigation in Mexico, as an international case study. The Mexico 2050 Calculator was used to run a number of low carbon future scenarios by 2050. The calculator consists of a whole-systems model, which combines the main sectors of the Mexican economy into a single visual tool. By integrating energy and carbon dynamics across all sectors and carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the entire model, we compare four low carbon energy scenarios to assess current energy policy strategies in the country. The methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to any other nation, particularly to those with similar models already available. Our findings show the relative impact of each sector and their various interactions for achieving Mexico's ratified climate commitments. The paper also includes policy recommendations and highlights the need for scaling-up energy efficiency policy efforts in industry and transport, for having a higher focus on agricultural and land use policies, and for promoting integrated renewable energy policies.
Emissions trading schemes (ETS) have become popular as a policy instrument to tackle climate change. This chapter analyses the decision to deploy carbon markets and their interaction with other instruments in Mexico’s climate policy. Instrument selection has been thoroughly explored in the regulation and public policy literature (Kern et al. in Res Policy 48, 2019; Capano and Lippi in Policy Sci 50(2):269–293, 2016; Wurzel et al. in German Policy Studies 9:21–48, 2013; Harker et al. in Climate Policy 17(4):485–500, 2017; Baldwin et al. in Understanding regulation, Oxford University Press, 2012; Jordan et al. in Policy instruments in practice. Oxford handbooks online 536–549, 2011), but its application to carbon markets is mainly focused on environments such as Europe, the US and, more recently, China. The decision to adopt an ETS relies not only on specific characteristics of each instrument but also on institutional constraints and messy political considerations. A combination of preferences and institutional factors affect the choice of instruments, and the ultimate decision must be legitimate and instrumental for each context. I analyse the considerations involved in the deployment of the ETS pilot project, looking at its distinctive characteristics and those it shares with other available instruments, as well as the requirements for its implementation.
México asumió compromisos de mitigación de emisiones mediante el Acuerdo de París. El cumplimiento conjunto de estas metas reducirá el efecto sobre la climatología global. Para lograrlo es necesario instrumentar acciones que, además de ser congruentes con las Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional (NDC por sus siglas en inglés), contribuyan a modernizar la matriz energética del país. Este artículo explora la introducción de un impuesto al contenido de carbono de los combustibles fósiles que deberá aumentar los próximos quince años hasta 100 dólares por tonelada. Se analizan los impactos sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) nacional, los distintos sectores productivos y grupos de ingreso a través de un modelo de equilibrio general computable de la economía mexicana. Los resultados muestran que de aplicarse varias políticas de manera conjunta es posible modificar la matriz energética y cumplir con los compromisos internacionales de mitigación, teniendo un impacto progresivo sobre el bienestar de los distintos grupos de ingreso.
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