Modelling carbon mitigation pathways by 2050: Insights from the Global Calculator

Strapasson, Alexandre; Woods, Jeremy; Pérez-Cirera, Vanessa; Elizondo, Alejandra; Cruz-Cano, Diego; Pestiaux, Julien; Cornet, M.; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2020.100494

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…However, by accessing the references and weblinks provided in this article, it is possible to further explore and run these calculators online. A more in-depth discussion on how the calculator's models work, and the main dynamics and uncertainties involved can be found in Strapasson et al (2017Strapasson et al ( , 2020bStrapasson et al ( , 2020c. In addition, the Global Calculator, more specifically, has two short tutorial videos 6,7 explaining its importance and how to use it for running simulations, which can be used for didactic purposes as well.…”

Section: Overview On the 2050 Calculatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies addressed the use of calculators to assess different geographical and sectorial impacts on climate change (Berger et al, 2020;Cooper et al, 2016;Elizondo et al, 2017;Gyalai-Korpos et al, 2020;Moinuddin & Kuriyama, 2019;Roscini et al, 2020;Strapasson, 2016;Strapasson et al, 2017Strapasson et al, , 2020b, as well as the effects of lifestyle changes (Costa et al, 2021) and employability (Füllemann et al, 2019). Regardless of different sectorial approaches and alternative features of some models, all 2050 Calculators follow a similar logic, which builds on the pioneering initiative of the UK 2050 Calculator.…”

Section: Overview On the 2050 Calculatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The use of system dynamics for energy and environmental education

Strapasson

Ferreira

Cruz-Cano

et al. 2022

Int J Educ Technol High Educ

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The use of system dynamics as a learning tool for developing sustainable energy strategies and environmental education has advanced in recent years with the availability of new modelling software and webtools. Among the existing models, we highlight the online 2050 Calculators, which aim at simulating scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, energy planning, sustainable land use, and food consumption. The objective of this study is to assess the available calculators and their contribution to an interdisciplinary education via systems thinking. We carried out a review of the existing models worldwide and ran some of the tools with students from three different postgraduate programmes at master’s level at Imperial College London (United Kingdom) and IFP School (France), whilst also assessing their individual views afterwards. The assessments were conducted once a year during three subsequent years: 2019, 2020, and 2021. The results are discussed under the epistemology of critical pedagogy, showing that the use of webtools, such as the 2050 Calculators, can significantly contribute to the students’ environmental awareness and political engagement, providing important lessons about the use of system dynamics for policy and science education.

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Section: Overview On the 2050 Calculatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overview On the 2050 Calculatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of system dynamics for energy and environmental education

Strapasson

Ferreira

Cruz-Cano

et al. 2022

Int J Educ Technol High Educ

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Numerous researchers have developed and used models such as the MARKAL/TIMES, 2050 calculator, marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), or forecast industry model to simulate the introduction of novel technologies or policies and predict their energy saving and carbon reduction potential [17][18][19][20][21]. Others have analyzed the energy consumption of a country or industry using energy efficiency indicators.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will the Management Structure of Energy Administrators Affect the Achievement of the Electrical Efficiency Mandatory Target for Taiwan Factories?

Liao

Chen

2021

Energies

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Since 2014, Taiwan has promoted a 1% annual electricity saving target to promote electrical efficiency efforts. As the industrial sector accounts for approximately 60% of the overall electricity consumption of Taiwan, this sector presents the greatest opportunity for improving Taiwan’s overall energy efficiency. Here, the energy audit data of industrial energy users are analyzed via logistic regression to understand the factors impacting their likelihood of achieving the targeted 1% electricity saving. Of the variables under study, the number of employees and the rank of the energy administrator were significantly correlated with the likelihood of reaching the electricity saving target. Within the management structure of the factory, energy users with higher-ranking energy administrators are more likely to achieve the targeted 1% electricity saving. As it is impractical to rapidly increase the number of employees, higher-ranking employees, i.e., factory executives, should be appointed as energy administrators to improve users’ electrical efficiency and thus reach the targeted 1% annual electricity saving. Based on the findings of our research, we put forward a point of view that in addition to the introduction of new technologies to improve energy efficiency, it can also be achieved through adjustments to the management structure of energy administration.

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“…For instance, the En-ROADS simulator generates trajectories using different economic, technical and social parameters (Sterman, 2012). Similarly, the Global Calculator tool can be used to generate trajectories based on energy, land and food scenarios (Strapasson et al, 2020). These different prospective scenarios can also be applied to specific sectors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation and evaluation of sustainable climate trajectories for aviation

Planès

Delbecq

Pommier-Budinger

et al. 2021

Journal of Environmental Management

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In 2019, aviation was responsible for 2.6% of world CO 2 emissions as well as additional climate impacts such as contrails. Like all industrial sectors, the aviation sector must implement measures to reduce its climate impact. This paper focuses on the simulation and evaluation of climate scenarios for air transport. For this purpose, a specific tool (CAST for "Climate and Aviation -Sustainable Trajectories") has been developed at ISAE-SUPAERO. This tool follows a methodology for the assessment of climate impacts adapted to aviation. Firstly, models for the main levers of action, such as air traffic, aircraft energy consumption and energy decarbonization, are provided using trend projections from historical data or assumptions from the literature. Second, the evaluation of scenarios is based on aviation carbon budgets, which are also extended to non-CO 2 effects using the concept of GWP*. Several scenario analyses are performed in this paper using CAST allowing different conclusions to be drawn. For instance, the modelling of the scenarios based on the more recent ATAG (Air Transport Action Group) commitments shows that aviation would consume 6.5% of the world carbon budget for +1.5 • C. Some illustrative scenarios are also proposed. By allocating 2.6% of the world carbon budget to aviation, it is shown that air transport is compatible with a +2 • C trajectory when the annual growth rate of air traffic varies between − 1.8% and +2.9%, depending on the technological improvements considered. However, using the same methodology for a +1.5 • C trajectory shows that a drastic decrease in air traffic is necessary. Lastly, analyses including non-CO 2 effects emphasize the importance of implementing specific strategies for mitigating contrails.

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Modelling carbon mitigation pathways by 2050: Insights from the Global Calculator

Cited by 15 publications

References 7 publications

The use of system dynamics for energy and environmental education

The use of system dynamics for energy and environmental education

Will the Management Structure of Energy Administrators Affect the Achievement of the Electrical Efficiency Mandatory Target for Taiwan Factories?

Simulation and evaluation of sustainable climate trajectories for aviation

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