This paper evaluates the effects of a fall in payroll taxes on employment and wages in the presence of high labor informality. For that purpose, the paper examines a recently approved tax reform in Colombia especially targeted to promote labor formality. The model suggests that the reform would increase total employment by between 0.3 to 0.5 percent and formal employment by between 3.4 to 3.7 percent over the pre-reform scenario. In addition, formal wage rates would increase by 4.9 percent as a result of the reform. This finding suggests that the pass-through effect in labor markets may be large in these economies.JEL codes: E62; H26; J21; O170
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RESUMENEste artículo presenta un modelo de economía pequeña y abierta para estudiar la importancia de los choques a la tasa de interés real en México. La tasa de interés se descompone en dos términos: la tasa de interés internacional y la prima de riesgo país. Las simulaciones muestran que el modelo con prima de riesgo país endógena es capaz de explicar varios hechos estilizados del ciclo económico. El análisis contrafactual sugiere que la eliminación de los choques a la tasa de interés real reduciría la volatilidad del PIB en alrededor de una tercera parte, debido principalmente a la eliminación de los choques a la prima de riesgo país. En ausencia de dichos choques, las caídas del componente cí-clico del PIB y del consumo durante la recesión de 1994-1995 habrían sido sólo de 2 y 4.5%, en contraste con las caídas de 12 y 16% observadas en los datos.
ABSTRACTThis paper presents a small open economy model to study the role of real interest rate shocks in Mexico. The interest rate is divided in two terms: an international rate and a country risk premia. Simulations show that the EL TRIMESTRE ECONÓMICO, vol. LXXX (4), núm. 320, octubre-diciembre de 2013, pp. 773-803 * Palabras clave: riesgo país, crisis del Tequila, ciclos económicos de economías emergentes. Clasificación JEL: E32, F32, F41. Artículo recibido el 15 de marzo y aceptado el 15 de noviembre de 2012. Agradecemos los valiosos comentarios de Carlos Montoro y un dictaminador anónimo de EL TRIMES-TRE ECONÓMICO, quienes ayudaron a mejorar el documento.
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