O Brasil vem passando por um processo de adiamento dos nascimentos, o que tem contribuído para que a fecundidade observada seja reduzida pela ação do efeito tempo. Nesse contexto, o primeiro nascimento assume importância, na medida em que o momento da sua ocorrência está relacionado ao dos nascimentos subsequentes e ao potencial de recuperação dos nascimentos adiados. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o comportamento dos nascimentos de primeira ordem no Brasil, levando-se em conta a heterogeneidade regional. Buscam-se elementos que possam enriquecer o debate acerca do futuro da fecundidade no país. São utilizados os dados dos Censos Demográficos e as histórias de nascimentos reconstruídas a partir destes, para o período de 1980 a 2010. Os resultados mostram a persistência dos diferenciais regionais e indicam um cenário de adiamento do primeiro filho no Brasil e de aumento da proporção de mulheresque terminam o período reprodutivo sem filhos. Caso os diferenciais regionais se reduzam, a tendência é de acirramento do adiamento e queda adicional dos níveis de fecundidade.
Life expectancy at birth is a synthetic mortality indicator that reflects the general living conditions of the population. Changes in mortality by age and causes of death generate no explicit changes in the indicator. The application of a decomposition method can bring light to the analysis of the phenomenon. The aim of this study was to estimate the contribution of age groups and causes of death in the variation in life expectancy at birth, for men and women, from 2000 to 2010, by applying Pollard's decomposition method. Brazilian life tables were obtained from IBGE and death data from SIM. The results indicate that the age group that most contributed to the increase in life expectancy was of less than 1 year old. Among the defined causes, cardiovascular diseases were responsible for the largest increase in life expectancy.
In Brazil, the reproductive behavior is differentiated according to educational level. The main objective of this article is to analyze fertility differentials by educational level in order to seek characteristics that determine the particular stage of the demographic transition of each educational group. The study will focus on the analysis of fertility level (tfr), parity composition, mean age of childbearing and tempo effect (bf Model). Data come from the Brazilian Demographic Censuses (1980 to 2010). Brazil seems to be completing the (first) demographic transition: fertility is below the replacement level, the mac is starting to increase and the percentage of higher order births is decreasing. Because of the great social inequality, one can identify groups in distinct stages of the transition. Regarding fertility, highly educated women are facing the sdt, while the lesser educated are facing the ftd.
Anticipación y postergación de los nacimientos en la transición de la fecundidad... Notas de Población N° 103 • julio-diciembre de 2016 tiempo y paridez, mientras que en el resto de este los dos efectos actuaron en sentidos opuestos, por lo que la fecundidad observada y la medida pura fueron muy similares. En el Brasil se observa una postergación sostenida de los nacimientos, fenómeno que, al parecer, se prolongaría en las próximas décadas. Palabras clave: transición de la fecundidad; efecto tiempo; postergación de los nacimientos; efecto paridez; modelo de Kohler y Ortega; Brasil.
A última década no Brasil foi marcada por grandes investimentos no setor imobiliário, incluindo a construção de unidades habitacionais para famílias de baixa renda. A despeito do volume de investimentos, a análise dos indicadores das carências habitacionais que pautaram as políticas públicas revela uma relativa persistência do chamado déficit habitacional. A análise deste indicador no período de 2007 a 2014 mostra que, dos quatro componentes que o integram, um tem chamado a atenção pelo seu crescimento: o ônus excessivo com aluguel urbano. Com o intuito de compreender o comportamento dos componentes do déficit habitacional e, em particular do ônus excessivo com aluguel urbano, o presente artigo traz uma reflexão conceitual do indicador à luz do referencial teórico da ecologia política urbana e de uma análise comparativa entre as metodologias de cálculo do déficit habitacional em países latino-americanos. A reflexão proposta neste trabalho pretende contribuir com a revisão crítica do indicador e aprimoramento do cálculo das carências habitacionais no Brasil.Palavras–chave: déficit habitacional, ônus com aluguel, ecologia política urbana, América Latina.Abstract The last decade in Brazil was marked by substantial investments in the real state sector, including the construction of new housing units for low-income households. Despite such a significant flow of resources, an appraisal of indicators related to housing needs that have guided public policies in the sector exposes a relative persistence of the so-called housing shortage. An analysis of the housing shortage indicator between 2007 and 2014 shows that one of its four essential components, the urban rental affordability stress, was the main responsible for the observed growth tendency. In order to understand the behavior of the components of the housing shortage and, particularly, of the urban rental affordability stress, the paper brings a conceptual discussion regarding the housing shortage indicator, by means of the theoretical framework provided by urban political ecology, as well as of a comparative analysis between the different calculation methodologies for this indicator adopted by Latin American countries. The proposed debate aims to contribute to a critical review of the housing shortage indicator and the improvement of the calculation of housing needs in Brazil.Keywords: housing shortage, rental affordability stress, urban political ecology, Latin America.
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