Fertility Differentials by Education in Brazil: From the Conclusion of Fertility to the Onset of Postponement Transition

Poverty, Inequality, and Fertility: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Global Poverty Reduction

“…Using data on within-country differences in fertility rates from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), we first document strong signs of the postulated Kuznets-type relationship between average fertility and fertility differentials between the poor and non-poor across countries at different stages of the demographic transition. This pattern is less distinct when status differences between the poor and non-poor are defined by schooling, which is consistent with earlier evidence that fertility differentials tend to be particularly "sticky" along educational lines (see, e.g., Bongaarts 2003;Rios-Neto et al 2018). These results translate remarkably well into the analysis of the relationship between average fertility and the population share in poverty, where we find robust support for the expected inverted-U shaped effect.…”

“…This pattern is less distinct when status differences between the poor and non‐poor are defined by schooling, which is consistent with earlier evidence that fertility differentials tend to be particularly “sticky” along educational lines (see, e.g., Bongaarts ; Rios‐Neto et al. ). These results translate remarkably well into the analysis of the relationship between average fertility and the population share in poverty, where we find robust support for the expected inverted‐U shaped effect.…”

“…Research by demographers often suggests that the convergence in fertility rates between the poor and nonpoor, which would give the relationship its predicted inverted-U shape, does not always materialize. This is particularly the case in countries with strong and persistent educational inequalities, which can slow down the spread of new reproductive behaviors among the population (Hull and Hull 1977;Bongaarts 2003;Rios-Neto et al 2018), as well as in societies where the poor face high barriers of entry into skilled jobs or quality health care (see, e.g., Ferreira and Paes de Barros, 1999;Lanjouw and Ravallion, 1999;Ravallion 2016, 351ff.). Perhaps more importantly, so far only relatively few countries report disaggregated data on fertility behaviors for sufficiently long-time periods to allow tracing the evolution of fertility differentials over the full duration of the demographic transition.…”

Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence

“…The decline started in the 1940s in more affluent urban areas and in the 1970s more broadly. Possible explanations are changes in the demand for fertility (owing to educational reforms or small-family norms evolving from the mass media) and in the supply of family planning services (owing to health care reforms and access to contraception), or changes in nuptial or residential patterns (Martine, 1996;Rios-Neto et al, 2018). Most of the expansion in urbanization, health care, education, marriage, and telenovelas took place between the 1960s and early 1980s (Martine, 1996;Caetano and Potter, 2004;La Ferrara et al, 2012).…”

“…Most of the expansion in urbanization, health care, education, marriage, and telenovelas took place between the 1960s and early 1980s (Martine, 1996;Caetano and Potter, 2004;La Ferrara et al, 2012). Starting in the 1990s, demographers observe a fertility stopping behavior among older women with sterilization; fertility becomes concentrated among women under 25 years of age with rising rates of teen pregnancies (Rios-Neto et al, 2018). In this environment of declining fertility, Brazil implemented a comprehensive pension reform.…”