Worldwide geographical distribution of Black Sigatoka for banana: predictions based on climate change models

Abstract

Global climatic changes will potentially influence plant diseases and the efficacy of their management options. One of the most likely impacts of climate change will be felt by the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Black Sigatoka is considered the most damaging and costly disease of banana. The socio-economic impact of this disease has continued to increase as the pathogen reaches new areas and the disease becomes more difficult to be controled. The objectives of this research were to compare the global geographical distribution of the disease based on maps elaborated using weather data representing: i) current and future periods (2020, 2050 and 2080), ii) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A2 and B2, iii) predictions based on six different climate change models and the "multimodel ensemble" and, iv) individual months. The "multimodel ensemble" lead to a reduction in the variability of the simulations when compared to the results obtained using the individual models separately. The predictions suggested that, in the future, areas favorable for the development of the Black Sigatoka disease will decrease. This reduction will occur gradually and will be higher for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. Changes in the geographical distribution of the disease will occur from one month to another, with unfavorable areas becoming favorable and vice-versa. However, in spite of these changes, extensive areas will still continue to be favorable for the occurrence of Black Sigatoka.

Black Sigatoka in bananas: Ecoclimatic suitability and disease pressure assessments

“…Moisture parameter values were derived from information available in the literature. The lower soil moisture threshold (SM0) is set to 0.8, as conidia cannot germinate below 92% RH [43] or 95% RH [44] and ascospores cannot germinate below 98% RH [43, 44]. Because optimal disease growth requires free water [44–46], the lower optimal soil moisture (SM1) is set to 1.…”

Diseases in tropical and plantation crops as affected by climate changes: current knowledge and perspectives

“…Despite this, extensive areas will remain favourable to this disease, especially from November to April, which is currently the most favourable period. Jesus Júnior et al. (2008b) used the IPCC scenarios and classified areas as highly favourable, favourable, relatively favourable, little favourable and unfavourable to develop maps representing future worldwide spatial distribution of black Sigatoka.…”

Climate and the Global Spread and Impact of Bananas’ Black Leaf Sigatoka Disease

“…In this regard, Bebber [28], on whose biophysical model our local disease diffusion framework is heavily based, showed that the risk of a disease outbreak has increased by a median of 44.2% in Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s. Moreover, using different climate dependent predictive factors of BSLD under two climate change scenarios, Júnior et al [38] calculate that while the areas favourable to the disease will decrease, extensive areas will continue to be favourable to BSLD.…”