Climate and the Global Spread and Impact of Bananas’ Black Leaf Sigatoka Disease

Abstract

While Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) has arguably been the most important pathogen affecting the banana industry over the past 50 years, there are no quantitative estimates of what risk factors determine its spread across the globe, nor how its spread has affected banana producing countries. This study empirically models the disease spread across and its impact within countries using historical spread timelines, biophysical models, local climate data, and country level agricultural data. To model the global spread a empirical hazard model is employed. The results show that the most important factor affecting first time infection of a country is the extent of their agricultural imports, having increased first time disease incidence by 69% points. In contrast, long distance dispersal due to climatic factors only raised this probability by 0.8% points. The impact of disease diffusion within countries once they are infected is modelled using a panel regression estimator. Findings indicate that under the right climate conditions the impact of Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease can be substantial, currently resulting in an average 3% reduction in global annual production, i.e., a loss of yearly revenue of about USD 1.6 billion.

Genetic Characteristics and Metabolic Interactions between Pseudocercospora fijiensis and Banana: Progress toward Controlling Black Sigatoka

“…For example, strategies for genetic improvement were identified in a study that queried over 3000 papers from six databases to identify genes, proteins, and pathways critical to the response of resistant banana cultivars [ 2 ]. Strobl and Mohan utilized climate and disease distribution data over 50 years to document the relative roles of crop importation and environmental dispersal in spread of the disease, using it as a model for the global impact of plant diseases [ 14 ].…”

Critical Evaluation of Cross-Sectoral Collaborations to Inform the Implementation of the “One Health” Approach in Guadeloupe

“…Environmental pollutants are also known to promote metabolic disorders such as obesity, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cognitive development impairments, and cancers (12)(13)(14). The emergence and global spread of plant pathogens are also promoted by global change and trade, threatening food security, and human health (15,16).…”

Plant Adaptation to Global Climate Change

“…The study concluded that evaporation is increasing and might put stress on different land and water resources due to seasonal variations. An empirical hazard model was used to get the pattern of the global spread of Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease (Mycosphaerella fijiensis), an important pathogen on banana [12]. The results showed that agricultural trade might play a significant role in spreading the disease across countries and highlights the threat and prospective cost of relying on just a few varieties with genetic similarity to produce a particular crop globally.…”