Why do poor countries suffer costly conflict? Unpacking per capita income and the onset of civil war

Abstract

Empirical studies on the causes of civil war robustly show that poor countries are more likely to suffer civil war than rich ones. However, the interpretations of this finding differ. The literature proposes three different causal mechanisms: (1) poverty leads to grievances; (2) income proxies the opportunity-cost of rebelling; and (3) income proxies state capacity. Using factor analysis, logistic modeling and multiple imputation, we test which of the three possible explanations can best explain the link between poverty and conflict. We find per capita income to belong to a wealth/poverty dimension, and to have little in common with "pure" measures of grievance and state capacity. Thus our findings support the opportunity-cost argument. The wealth dimension is also shown to be the most important underlying cause of civil war.

The Arc of Modernization: Economic Structure, Materialism, and the Onset of Civil Conflict

“…As our dependent variable is dichotomous, a logit or probit model might seem appropriate. Indeed, such models are common within the extant literature on intrastate disputes (e.g., Fearon and Laitin 2003; Fearon 2005; Jakobsen, de Soysa and Jakobsen 2013; Koubi and Böhmelt 2014). However, our hypotheses—and many theories related to civil war—do not simply state that the likelihood of civil conflict should fall (or rise) as a particular factor rises.…”

“…These arguments are “profit-seeking” approaches: potential rebels join insurgencies only when the expected payoff from rebellion outweighs the status quo payoff (Taydas, Peksen and James 2010). Accordingly, these studies take into consideration factors such as the country’s level of economic development (Fearon and Laitin 2003; Jakobsen, de Soysa and Jakobsen 2013) and growth, and the presence of (lootable) natural resources (Collier and Hoeffler 2004; Boix 2008).…”

“… 2 An important exception comes from Jakobsen, de Soysa and Jakobsen (2013), who examine both sets of explanations, pitting them against one another. They find that opportunity cost mechanisms have greater explanatory power.…”

Is Commerce Good for the Soul? An Empirical Assessment

“…7. According to Jakobsen et al (2013), higher per capita income lowers the risk of civil war by increasing the cost of rebellion.…”

“…According to Jakobsen et al (), higher per capita income lowers the risk of civil war by increasing the cost of rebellion. The wealth dimension – per capita income, poverty, agricultural GDP as a share of total GDP, and social security as a share of GDP – is also shown to be the most important underlying cause of civil war.…”