The Arc of Modernization: Economic Structure, Materialism, and the Onset of Civil Conflict

Abstract

The onset of intrastate conflict has two requisite conditions: that prospective insurgents have an incentive to rebel, and that the state lacks the capacity to deter such a rebellion. We outline a simple rationalist argument grounded in gains from economic growth—to both individual income and state revenue—to argue that modernization has the potential to affect the likelihood of civil conflict through both of these conditions. The shift away from a rent-seeking economy affects opportunity costs for rebellion by increasing the cost of recruitment, broadening the time horizon for gain, and decreasing looting possibilities. On the state side, modernization increases state military, economic, and institutional capacity, allowing governments to deter rebellion. We construct an index of modernization from World Bank data and apply a strategic model to explore the effect of modernization on both states and rebels simultaneously. We find that the modernization process describes an arc that may increase the likelihood of unrest in the early stages, but has long-term stabilizing effects.

A Modern Peace? Schumpeter, the Decline of Conflict, and the Investment–War Trade-Off

“… 7. A similar phenomenon has been observed by civil war scholars, who argue that a number of related factors, including the country’s level of economic growth and development (Fearon and Laitin 2003; Jakobsen, de Soysa, and Jakobsen 2013), the presence of (lootable) natural resources (Boix 2008; Collier and Hoeffler 2004; Ross 2012), and the degree of modernization (Chatagnier and Castelli, 2016) within the state, can play an important role in the likelihood of civil war onset. …”

External threat environments and individual bias against female leaders

“…Column 2 adds a natural log of democracy duration, while Column 3 adds per capita oil and gas production. The last two columns include two dimensions of modernization, economic modernization, and material culture (Chatagnier and Castelli, 2019). However, none of these alter our central finding.…”