Water security assessment of current and future scenarios through an integrated modeling framework in the Neshanic River Watershed

Giri, Subhasis; Arbab, Nazia N.; Lathrop, Richard G.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.05.046

Cited by 39 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Wijesekara et al [12] combined a land use cellular automata model with a hydrological model for assessing the impact of land use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada. Recently, Giri et al [13] coupled an agent-based probabilistic land use change model with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the consequences of urban growth on hydrological changes in a watershed (Raritan Basin) located in central New Jersey. Overall, these studies indicated that a rise in the urban area leads to an increase in streamflow over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Potential Impact of Rising Production of Industrial Wood Pellets on Streamflow in the Presence of Projected Changes in Land Use and Climate: A Case Study from the Oconee River Basin in Georgia, United States

Shrestha

Dwivedi

McKay

et al. 2019

Water

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This study examines the impact of projected land use changes in the context of growing production of industrial wood pellets coupled with expected changes in precipitation and temperature due to the changing climate on streamflow in a watershed located in the northeastern corner of the Oconee River Basin. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for ascertaining any changes in streamflow over time. The developed model was calibrated over a seven-year period (2001–2007) and validated over another seven-year period (2008–2014). Any changes in streamflow were simulated for a combination of 10 land use and climate change cases, from 2015 to 2028, under the two scenarios of High and Low Demand for industrial wood pellets. Our results suggest that streamflow is relatively stable (<1% change) for land use and temperature-related cases relative to the base case of no change in land use and climate. However, changes in precipitation by ±10% lead to considerable changes (±25%) in streamflow relative to the base case. Based on our results, expected changes in precipitation due to the changing climate will determine any changes in the streamflow, rather than projected land use changes in the context of rising demand for industrial wood pellets for export purposes in the selected watershed, keeping land under urban areas as constant. This study contributes to our broader understanding of the sustainability of the transatlantic industrial wood pellet trade; however, we suggest undertaking similar research at a larger spatial scale over a longer time horizon for understanding trade-offs across carbon, biodiversity, and water impacts of the transatlantic industrial wood pellet trade.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Potential Impact of Rising Production of Industrial Wood Pellets on Streamflow in the Presence of Projected Changes in Land Use and Climate: A Case Study from the Oconee River Basin in Georgia, United States

Shrestha

Dwivedi

McKay

et al. 2019

Water

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“…Prescriptive or optimization model results are particularly important to support water policy decisions as they can identify a strategy to be adopted to satisfy a certain objective or decision criteria, which can be hydrological (hydrologyinferred), with a function-goal where the decision on intersector allocation is derived from hydrological specifications, and an economic goal, using the economic equimarginality principle (Cai, 2008). Even when those optimization networkbased models incorporate economic criteria (Brouwer and Hofkes, 2008;Maneta et al, 2009;Salla et al, 2014;Chakroun et al, 2015;Kahil et al, 2015;Garbe and Beevers, 2017;Ghosh et al, 2017;Ahmadaali et al, 2018;Giri et al, 2018;Gunawardena et al, 2018;Maria et al, 2020) and can calculate the economic optimum (hydro-economic models) and to measure the direct economic impacts of this allocation, they are not able to obtain broader socioeconomic indicators such as: GDP, employment, government revenues, consumption, investment, exports and imports, income distribution, or comparative advantages between sectors. Models that can generate these values are known as economywide and examples of them are Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium (Bekchanov et al, 2017;Sun et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Integrated Economic Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integration of a Network-Based and an Economy-Wide Water Model to Support Decision Making on Water Resources Planning and Management in Northeastern Brazil

et al. 2021

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Allocation of Water Resources at the basin level is a critical issue for economic growth as well as for environmental sustainability. This study integrates network-based optimization with an Input-Output model, made available through a Spatial Decision Support System (HEAL), to support design and evaluation of water allocation policies. The innovative platform was applied to a case study using four-interlinked hydrographic basins in Northeastern of Brazil. The integrated modeling was able to measure broader socioeconomic impacts of decisions on reservoir volumes and water allocations at basin level, through indicators in a sectoral and regional scale, including ones associated with Sustainable Development Goals, such as the Water Use Efficiency (WUE) indicator. Results of the trade-offs between two scenarios, representative of the limits of performance of regulatory water instruments, were generated using the integrated modeling. They were compared with the Reference scenario for the base year (2011) and show that the economic sector most negatively affected by the regulatory instrument use is the industrial sector. Furthermore, the sugar and ethanol industry, main water users in the industrial sector (93.1% of the sector's water use) and less efficient (WUE 1.47 US$/m3 vs. 30.70 US$/m3 average of the sector) in the base year, maintain their percentage share of water use in the sector and even slightly expand it (93.2%), with slight efficiency gains (+2.3%). On the other hand, non-water-intensive industries, have their shares reduced (from 6.9 to 6.8%) and lose efficiency (−9.5%). Results of the same trade-offs by region showed that the largest proportional economic losses occur in the drier areas, damaging the economy, especially in the most industrialized municipalities with the highest GDPs. Integrated economic modeling can expand aspects involved in water security issues, assisting management by introducing socioeconomic impact measures, in a broader scale, associated with allocation decisions. Hydrological allocation criteria cannot distinguish between user efficiency and which economic sectors are using how much water. This results in economic and social losses. In water-scarce regions and with growing transfer needs, such as in the basins studied, adequate incentives, through management instruments designed based on economic theory, are essential to promote sustainable development.

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“…The increasing water scarcity around the world led to improve the strategies aimed to its mitigation (Wang et al 2019), though ensuring water security is still a major global challenge. Water scarcity is prevalent in many regions of the world and it is expected to increase in the upcoming years due to population growth, climate change, and land cover changes (Giri et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ecological and hydrological imbalances caused by land-use changes in watersheds are widely recognized in the scientific community (Giri et al 2018, Chaves et al 2019, Nikolic et al 2019, Sadeghi et al 2019. However, the influence of forest cover on streamflow at watershed scale is still controversial, as the former has been reported to affect the latter both positively and negatively, depending on the study (Hornbeck et al 1993, Andréassian 2004, Zhang et al 2017, Guzha et al 2018, Mendes et al 2018, Schenk et al 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Method for the analysis of the relationship between forest cover and streamflow in watersheds

Ferraz¹,

Zanetti²,

Cecílio³

et al. 2021

iForest

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Biogeosciences and Forestry Biogeosciences and ForestryMethod for the analysis of the relationship between forest cover and streamflow in watersheds Fabrina Teixeira Ferraz (1) , Sidney Sara Zanetti (2) , Roberto Avelino Cecílio (2) , Dulcinéia de Carvalho (1) , Francielle Rodrigues de Oliveira (2) The relationship between forest cover and streamflow of watersheds is complex and still controversial in the scientific literature. To investigate such relationship we propose an alternative method which requires the following information for each watershed: percentage of forest cover, annual rainfall, average specific streamflow (qave), and minimum mean specific streamflow in seven consecutive days (q7). As a case study, we analyzed a dataset composed by 25 watersheds located in the Espírito Santo State (ESS), Brazil. We conducted simple and multiple linear regression analyses as well as partial correlation analysis between the above parameters. To reduce the effect of heterogeneity of environmental factors, watersheds with similar characteristics in term of rainfall, drainage area, and both rainfall and drainage area were grouped by cluster analysis, and the above regression and correlation analysis was repeated on each group. Our results using the whole dataset showed that forest cover has a negative relationship with watershed streamflow. The analysis of homogeneous groups of watersheds showed that the average minimum streamflow during seven days (q7) was more sensitive to the presence of forest cover, showing a negative relationship, especially in watersheds with low annual rainfall, while in areas with high precipitation, the annual rainfall showed a strong influence on the hydrological responses of watersheds, masking the effect of forest cover. The proposed method may be easily extended to other areas, and allows the inclusion of other relevant environmental variables according to specific cases.

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Water security assessment of current and future scenarios through an integrated modeling framework in the Neshanic River Watershed

Cited by 39 publications

References 47 publications

Assessing the Potential Impact of Rising Production of Industrial Wood Pellets on Streamflow in the Presence of Projected Changes in Land Use and Climate: A Case Study from the Oconee River Basin in Georgia, United States

Assessing the Potential Impact of Rising Production of Industrial Wood Pellets on Streamflow in the Presence of Projected Changes in Land Use and Climate: A Case Study from the Oconee River Basin in Georgia, United States

Integration of a Network-Based and an Economy-Wide Water Model to Support Decision Making on Water Resources Planning and Management in Northeastern Brazil

Method for the analysis of the relationship between forest cover and streamflow in watersheds

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