Assessing the Potential Impact of Rising Production of Industrial Wood Pellets on Streamflow in the Presence of Projected Changes in Land Use and Climate: A Case Study from the Oconee River Basin in Georgia, United States

Abstract

This study examines the impact of projected land use changes in the context of growing production of industrial wood pellets coupled with expected changes in precipitation and temperature due to the changing climate on streamflow in a watershed located in the northeastern corner of the Oconee River Basin. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for ascertaining any changes in streamflow over time. The developed model was calibrated over a seven-year period (2001–2007) and validated over another seven-year period (2008–2014). Any changes in streamflow were simulated for a combination of 10 land use and climate change cases, from 2015 to 2028, under the two scenarios of High and Low Demand for industrial wood pellets. Our results suggest that streamflow is relatively stable (<1% change) for land use and temperature-related cases relative to the base case of no change in land use and climate. However, changes in precipitation by ±10% lead to considerable changes (±25%) in streamflow relative to the base case. Based on our results, expected changes in precipitation due to the changing climate will determine any changes in the streamflow, rather than projected land use changes in the context of rising demand for industrial wood pellets for export purposes in the selected watershed, keeping land under urban areas as constant. This study contributes to our broader understanding of the sustainability of the transatlantic industrial wood pellet trade; however, we suggest undertaking similar research at a larger spatial scale over a longer time horizon for understanding trade-offs across carbon, biodiversity, and water impacts of the transatlantic industrial wood pellet trade.

The Impacts of Calamity Logging on the Development of Spruce Wood Prices in Czech Forestry

“…The prediction of timber harvesting volume is important [12], as is the prediction of the impact of unplanned logging on the price of raw spruce [9]. The problem affects not only most European countries, but also the United States [9] and Canada, both major wood-producing countries.…”

Assessing the Effect of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Discharge and Sediment Yield in a Rural Coal-Mine Dominated Watershed in Kentucky, USA

“…SWAT-CUPP offers two algorithms, SWAT Parameter Estimator (SPE) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). We used the SPE algorithm (previously Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2)) for model sensitivity analysis, calibration, uncertainty analysis, and validation [5,13]. In SPE, the algorithm maps all uncertainties (parameter, conceptual model, input, etc.)…”

“…Discharge was calibrated first since it is the primary controlling variable [54]. After running the one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis and following the literature [5,24,45,61], the model was parameterized, and ranges were assigned. The model was run for three iterations (600 simulations each) for calibration.…”

“…It has long been considered a factor affecting the global environment [1,2]. Numerous studies over the past decade have highlighted the role of LULC change on various aspects of the environment, such as hydrological response [3][4][5], climate change [6][7][8], ecosystem services [9,10], and food security [11,12]. Among the studied impacts of LULC change, hydrological responses and accompanying factors, such as water quality and quantity, have received a great deal of attention.…”

“…The complexities in the LULC change process and the associated hydrological cycle vary across geographic regions [1]. Changes in LULC in the watershed alter hydrological responses, including increased runoff, high streamflow, soil erosion, and inferior water quality [4,5,13,14]. Moreover, studies have shown wide variations in hydrological responses due to variations in watershed characteristics.…”