The validation and use of a life‐cycle simulation model for risk assessment of insect pests<sup>1</sup>

Baker, C. R. B.

doi:10.1111/j.1365-2338.1991.tb01295.x

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 1 publication

(6 reference statements)

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“…Admittedly, because of the wide variety of crops, pests, pathogens and their distributions, it is unlikely that any one sampling plan will suffice in all situations (McSorley and Parrado, 1982;Abd-Elgawad, 1992;Abd-Elgawad and Hassabo, 1995). Nevertheless, sound and technical information on quarantine organisms which deal with the organism's recognition, known distribution, biology and main means of spread are fundamentals in order to evaluate the potential of such alien species to become pests if introduced into new areas (Baker, 1990(Baker, , 1991 and in (Elliott, 1971;Southey, 1986). order to produce a cost/benefit analysis of control by phytosanitary regulation as opposed to 'living with the pest' (Baker, 1981).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quarantine problems: An analytical approach with special reference to palm weevils and phytonematodes

Salama

Abd-Elgawad

2003

Archives Of Phytopathology And Plant Protection

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quarantine problems: An analytical approach with special reference to palm weevils and phytonematodes

Salama

Abd-Elgawad

2003

Archives Of Phytopathology And Plant Protection

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“…It is introduced in relation to the PETE model and for alien pests within Baker (1991), where further details may be found. It is introduced in relation to the PETE model and for alien pests within Baker (1991), where further details may be found.…”

Section: Activity Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This index is explicitly related to the life-cycle of the insect. It is introduced in relation to the PETE model and for alien pests within Baker (1991), where further details may be found. The index represents adult activity, and is heavily influenced by the suitability of weather conditions for oviposition, and is scaled between 1 and 10.…”

Section: Activity Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 2. Accounting for interyear climate variability

Jarvis

Baker

2001

Diversity and Distributions

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The paper firstly discusses the importance of accounting for interyear variability when assessing the likelihood of establishment of an alien pest. The potential establishment of Colorado beetle ( Leptinotarsa decemlineata ) is used as an illustration within the geographical context of England and Wales. An aggregate risk index is introduced as a probabilistic representation of the likelihood that a pest might complete a single generation over a 30-year period . Data for individual years were used to compute, objectively, the interyear distribution of risk across the landscape. The standard deviation in area at risk (26 800 km 2 ) was high relative to the average proportion of the landscape potentially at risk (95 700 km 2 ). In 40% of years, the area at risk was estimated to be higher than 'average'.Secondly, the paper demonstrates multiple indices of risk that reflect different aspects of pest risk assessment. Viewing risk from a variety of perspectives provides a means of gauging the consistency and therefore reliability of the results. This contrasts with current practice, where a single mapped output is commonly presented to decision makers. Modelling using a daily time step allowed the use of indices to investigate the long-term probabilities of biotic and abiotic events of short duration. These indices include estimates of pest activity and flight potential.

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“…However, most phenology models (e.g. Baker, 1991), require daily data. These would need to be obtained from monthly data using statistical simulation (e.g.…”

Section: Further Developments Of the European Pest Risk Mapping Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing a European pest risk mapping system¹

Baker¹

1996

EPPO Bulletin

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Following the 1993 World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement, pest risk analyses (PRAs) must now follow internationally agreed standards. However, the international PRA standards under development provide little detailed guidance on the most complex areas of PRA: the assessment of introduction potential and economic impact. This is particularly difficult when a large area, such as Europe, with a wide variety of climatic zones and crop agroecosystems is being studied. This paper shows that the datasets required to analyse the potential for pest establishment can best be integrated and the results displayed in a pest risk map using a Geographical Information System (GIS). To illustrate how a pest risk mapping system might be developed, European risk maps for Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Ceratitis capitata and Bactrocera tryoni were constructed using CLIMEX, a dynamic simulation model which predicts potential distribution based on climate, with a 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude 1961–90 European gridded climatology and displayed in a GIS. The developments required to refine these predictions and create a generic European pest risk mapping system are outlined.

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The validation and use of a life‐cycle simulation model for risk assessment of insect pests¹

Cited by 18 publications

References 1 publication

Quarantine problems: An analytical approach with special reference to palm weevils and phytonematodes

Quarantine problems: An analytical approach with special reference to palm weevils and phytonematodes

Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 2. Accounting for interyear climate variability

Developing a European pest risk mapping system¹

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The validation and use of a life‐cycle simulation model for risk assessment of insect pests1

Cited by 18 publications

References 1 publication

Quarantine problems: An analytical approach with special reference to palm weevils and phytonematodes

Quarantine problems: An analytical approach with special reference to palm weevils and phytonematodes

Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 2. Accounting for interyear climate variability

Developing a European pest risk mapping system1

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The validation and use of a life‐cycle simulation model for risk assessment of insect pests¹

Developing a European pest risk mapping system¹