Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 2. Accounting for interyear climate variability

Jarvis, C.; Baker, Richard

doi:10.1046/j.1366-9516.2001.00114.x

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The 1961-90 dataset also does not summarise current climatic conditions. • Thirty year averages mask the annual variability (Jarvis and Baker, 2001). …”

Section: Limitations Of the South African Application Of The Climex Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pest risk assessment and additional evidence provided by South Africa on Guignardia citricarpa Kiely, citrus black spot fungus - CBS - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Plant Health

2009

EFSA Journal

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“…The 1961-90 dataset also does not summarise current climatic conditions. • Thirty year averages mask the annual variability (Jarvis and Baker, 2001). …”

Section: Limitations Of the South African Application Of The Climex Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pest risk assessment and additional evidence provided by South Africa on Guignardia citricarpa Kiely, citrus black spot fungus - CBS - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Plant Health

2009

EFSA Journal

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“…As the development of many pathogens, plants, arthropods, and some vertebrates is dictated by temperature and moisture, an evaluation of climate suitability can be particularly informative. Climate suitability for pest establishment can be assessed by analyzing the climatic conditions of regions where the species is known to exist and using the resulting models (alternatively known as ecological-niche, speciesdistribution, or climate-envelope models) to forecast the quality of the environment for establishment in endangered areas (e.g., Jarvis and Baker 2001;Peterson et al 2011a;Venette et al 2010). Alternatively, data from properly designed experiments to ascertain how population growth or decline is governed by temperature or moisture can be used to develop mechanistic models of the suitability of climates for the persistence of an invading population through time (e.g., Pattison and Mack 2009).…”

Section: Assessment Of Areas Suitable For Establishment Of Alienmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Intervention Strategies for Invasive Species Management: Connections Between Risk Assessment, Prevention Efforts, Eradication, and Other Rapid Responses

Venette

Gordon

Juzwik

et al. 2021

Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States

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Managing invasive species becomes increasingly difficult and expensive as populations of new pathogens, plants, insects, and other animals (i.e., pests) spread and reach high densities. Research over the past decade confirms the value of early intervention strategies intended to (1) prevent invasive species from arriving within an endangered area or (2) detect and respond quickly to new species incursions (Baker et al. 2009; Ewel et al. 1999; Holden et al. 2016; Leung et al. 2014). The goal of such biosecurity approaches is to keep or return the density of invasive species to zero so that damages from those pests might be prevented or to confine populations to localized areas so that damage from those species might be limited (Magarey et al. 2009). Prediction, prevention, early detection, eradication, and other rapid responses, all components of proactive management, are less costly and more effective than reactive tactics (Epanchin-Niell and Liebhold 2015; Leung et al. 2002; Lodge et al. 2006; Rout et al. 2014) (Fig. 6.1). Prediction is achieved through risk assessment (a process to forecast the likelihood and consequence of an invasion) and pathway analysis (a process to evaluate the means by which invasive species might be brought into an area of concern). Prevention is achieved through a variety of measures including regulations and quarantine treatments. Indeed, pathway analyses and subsequent regulation of those pathways are considered “the frontline in the prevention of biological invasions” (Hulme 2009) and cost-effective approaches (Essl et al. 2015; Keller et al. 2007; Leung et al. 2002; Tidbury et al. 2016). Surveillance is fundamental to early detection, and if a target species is detected, the primary rapid responses are eradication, containment, or suppression (reviewed in Beric and MacIsaac 2015). Early intervention strategies often operate at spatial scales that are much greater than the scale at which most land managers operate. Success thus requires effective coordination among researchers, regulators, and managers at international, national, sub-national, and local levels.

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“…Further geographical perspectives on the pest risk assessment process are explored in the following paper ( Jarvis & Baker, 2001). Where a phenological model or even simple accumulated temperature information are available, the framework discussed will also facilitate explorations of risk that more fully integrate environmental and economic issues in the future.…”

Section: Strategic Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is however, important to note that these spatial phenologies form just one component in support of an assessment of the risk posed by a pest, and that this assessment process is itself one element within the wider PRA process. Further geographical perspectives on the pest risk assessment process are explored in the following paper ( Jarvis & Baker, 2001).…”

Section: Strategic Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 1. Mapping the outputs of phenology models to assess the likelihood of establishment

Jarvis¹,

Baker²

2001

Diversity and Distributions

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This paper demonstrates the use of phenology models mapped over the landscape as a tool in support of risk assessments for nonindigenous plant pests. Drawing on the relationship between pest development and temperature, the approach uses gridded sequential interpolated temperatures at a resolution of 1 km, linked with phenology models, to predict the potential for a pest to develop throughout the landscape. The potential for establishment of Colorado beetle ( Leptinotarsa decemlineata ) in England and Wales was used as an illustration.The likelihood of the pest completing a single generation during a 30-year period (1961-90) was computed. Summaries of phenology, based firstly upon point temperature series from weather stations and secondly upon temperatures interpolated across the landscape, were compared. The results revealed that the use of point data led to a 70% likelihood of over-estimating the area at risk from year to year. In the case of average long-term risk however, the point-based and landscape-wide distributions of establishment potential were similar.We demonstrate how the use of phenology models running on a daily time scale provides date based results, so allowing outputs to be tied in with periods in the cropping cycle. The application of daily data in computing the phenological results, unlike the main body of published work on pest risk assessment which uses averaged monthly data, reflects more fully the underlying variability and degrees of sensitivity of the pest to changes in weather.

show abstract

Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 2. Accounting for interyear climate variability

Cited by 15 publications

References 25 publications

Pest risk assessment and additional evidence provided by South Africa on Guignardia citricarpa Kiely, citrus black spot fungus - CBS - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Plant Health

Pest risk assessment and additional evidence provided by South Africa on Guignardia citricarpa Kiely, citrus black spot fungus - CBS - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Plant Health

Early Intervention Strategies for Invasive Species Management: Connections Between Risk Assessment, Prevention Efforts, Eradication, and Other Rapid Responses

Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 1. Mapping the outputs of phenology models to assess the likelihood of establishment

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