The Status of World Oil Depletion at the end of 1995

Campbell, Colin J.

doi:10.1177/014459879601400105

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Based on analogies with previously peaked regions, one may expect that the maximum depletion rate of the world will be somewhere in the order of 2-3% based on remaining recoverable resources. This is in agreement with the numbers used by Campbell [11,[43][44][45][46]. Typical depletion levels seen at peak production were found to be significantly less than 50%.…”

Section: Concluding Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Therefore, the depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources at peak or plateau for the world can be expected to be around 2-3%. This is also in agreement with the numbers frequently used by Campbell [11,[43][44][45][46]. Using USGS data, Sorrell et al [47] also found similar depletion rate values for regions and the world.…”

Section: Depletion Rates Of Regionssupporting

confidence: 87%

“…This has already been done by others, in particular Colin Campbell, who spearheaded the use of depletion rates of remaining recoverable resources in regional modelling in earlier studies (for example [11,[43][44][45][46]). …”

Section: Depletion Rates Of Regionsmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

Höök

2014

Fuel

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PostprintThis is the accepted version of a paper published in Fuel. This paper has been peer-reviewed but does not include the final publisher proof-corrections or journal pagination.Citation for the original published paper (version of record):Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: a methodological foundation. Fuel Abstract:This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for depletion rate analysis and ties it to the physics of depletion. Theory was compared with empirical data from 1036 fields and a number of regions. Strong agreement between theory and practice was found, indicating that the framework is plausible. Both single fields and entire regions exhibit similar depletion rate patterns, showing the generality of the approach. The maximum depletion rates for fields were found to be well described by a Weibull distribution.Depletion rates were also found to strongly correlate with decline rates. In particular, the depletion rate at peak was shown to be useful for predicting the future decline rate. Studies of regions indicate that a depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources in the range of 2-3% is consistent with historical experience. This agrees well with earlier "peak oil" forecasts and indicates that they rest on a solid scientific ground.

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Section: Concluding Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Depletion Rates Of Regionssupporting

confidence: 87%

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Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

Höök

2014

Fuel

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“…Depletion rates have been studied since the late 1970s [4] and the concept has become prominent in the peak oil debate largely because of the work of Campbell [5][6][7][8]-although he is far from alone in using depletion rates. However, the definition of depletion rates and the methodology for estimating them has varied over time and has never been as standardized as is the case for decline rates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates . These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oilfields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

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“…Hubbert [72] was one of the first to fit curves to discovery data as a function of exploratory effort, and variants of this approach have subsequently been employed by other authors [54,69,88,89].…”

Section: (C) Discovery Over Exploratory Effort Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using growth curves to forecast regional resource recovery: approaches, analytics and consistency tests

Sorrell

Speirs

2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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There is growing concern about the depletion of hydrocarbon resources and the risk of near-term peaks in production. These concerns hinge upon contested estimates of the recoverable resources of different regions and the associated forecasts of regional production. Beginning with Hubbert, an influential group of analysts have used growth curves both to estimate recoverable resources and to forecast future production. Despite widespread use, these ‘curve-fitting’ techniques remain a focus of misunderstanding and dispute. The aim of this paper is to classify and explain these techniques and to identify both their relative suitability in different circumstances and the expected level of confidence in their results. The paper develops a mathematical framework that maps curve-fitting techniques onto the available data for conventional oil and highlights the critical importance of the so-called ‘reserve growth’. It then summarizes the historical origins, contemporary application and strengths and weaknesses of each group of curve-fitting techniques and uses illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to explore the extent to which these techniques provide consistent estimates of recoverable resources. The paper argues that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim, the confidence bounds on the results are wider than commonly assumed and the techniques have a tendency to underestimate recoverable resources.

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The Status of World Oil Depletion at the end of 1995

Cited by 12 publications

References 9 publications

Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Using growth curves to forecast regional resource recovery: approaches, analytics and consistency tests

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