Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

Höök, Mikael

doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2013.12.024

Cited by 24 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…is one of the best descriptions for the probability distributions according to Chi-Squared tests and this reflects the earlier results found for conventional oil by Höök [24]. …”

Section: Hyperbolic Decline Curvesupporting

confidence: 84%

Production Patterns of Eagle Ford Shale Gas: Decline Curve Analysis Using 1084 Wells

et al. 2016

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This paper analyzes and quantifies characteristic production behavior using historical data from 1084 shale gas wells in the Eagle Ford shale play from 2010 to 2014. Decline curve analysis, using Hyperbolic and Stretched Exponential models, are used to derive average decline rates and other characteristic parameters for shale gas wells. Both Hyperbolic and Stretched Exponential models fit well to aggregated and individual well production data. The hyperbolic model is found to perform slightly better than the Stretched Exponential model in this study. In the Eagle Ford shale play, about 77% of wells reach the peak production of 1644-4932 mil cubic feet per day; the production decline rate of the first year is around 70%, and over the first two years it is around 80%; shale gas wells were estimated to yield estimated ultimate recoverable total resources of 1.41-2.03 billion cubic feet (20 years as life span), which is in line with other studies.

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“…is one of the best descriptions for the probability distributions according to Chi-Squared tests and this reflects the earlier results found for conventional oil by Höök [24]. …”

Section: Hyperbolic Decline Curvesupporting

confidence: 84%

Production Patterns of Eagle Ford Shale Gas: Decline Curve Analysis Using 1084 Wells

et al. 2016

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“…Originally, the Arps curves were a set of mathematical equations with no physical basis other than that the equation gave a declining trend that provided a good fit with empirical data. However, a connection to physics has been proved for an exponential decline curve, which represents the solution to the flow equation at constant pressure [18]. This methodology has been widely used for forecasting production or estimating reserves in conventional oil and gas formations [19][20][21][22][23].…”

Section: Decline Curve Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristic Production Decline Patterns for Shale Gas Wells in Barnett

Guo¹,

Zhang²,

Wachtmeister³

et al. 2017

J-SustaiN

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This paper derives characteristic decline patterns for shale gas wells by analyzing historical well production data using decline curve analysis of 14,453 shale gas wells in the Barnett shale play from 2000 to 2014. The Hyperbolic model and the Stretched Exponential model are applied on the well-by-well production data at average aggregate well and individual well levels to derive the characteristic parameters. Both the Hyperbolic curve and the Stretched Exponential curve display a good fit to the data for both the average aggregate and the individual shale gas wells. The Hyperbolic model performs slightly better than the Stretched Exponential model in this study. The first year rate of decline for production of a shale gas well is around 60% and over the first two years is around 73%. There is an increasing trend in initial production for new wells over the last decade. A supposed cut-off production rate of 133 Mcf/d results in the estimated ultimate recoverable resource (URR) of about 1.4-2.7 billion cubic feet and a well life time of 11-29 years, which is in line with other studies.

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“…pressure, rock compressibility, dissolution, formation slope, capillarity, and more, the reservoir pressure and water influx are the two most dominant factors which influence the depletion rate of petroleum. The investigation of the depletion rate of productions of some nonrenewable resources shows that the maximum depletion rate generally occurs when the production reaches its peak point or the end of the plateau, after which the depletion rate will be stable or else lower [12]. In the case of coal in Indonesia, the depletion rate is influenced by the quality of the coal in each coal basin ( Table 2).…”

Section: Production and Depletion Of Indonesian Coalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting on Indonesian Coal Production and Future Extraction Cost: A Tool for Formulating Policy on Coal Marketing

Rosyid¹,

Adachi²

2016

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Since 2011 Indonesia has become the world's largest exporter of steam coal. Two supporting factors of Indonesia to be the largest exporter are its enormous production and low operating cost. This paper foresees the production and extraction cost of Indonesian coal in the coming period to evaluate marketing policies and estimate the cost of Indonesian coal supply in domestic market as well as in export market. The production forecasting is carried out by Gompertz curve. Peak production of Indonesian coal is expected to take place in 2026. Moreover, the extraction cost in coal basins which produce high calorific value of coal, in accordance to the operating cost forecasting, is higher than the one with low calorific value of coal due to its higher stripping ratio. Three main basins of Central Sumatra, Tarakan, and Barito basins play major rule in supplying coal for domestic use in short term. And other coal basins such as South Sumatra, Kutai, Bengkulu, and Ombilin basins provide long term supply in the domestic and export markets.

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Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

Cited by 24 publications

References 34 publications

Production Patterns of Eagle Ford Shale Gas: Decline Curve Analysis Using 1084 Wells

Production Patterns of Eagle Ford Shale Gas: Decline Curve Analysis Using 1084 Wells

Characteristic Production Decline Patterns for Shale Gas Wells in Barnett

Forecasting on Indonesian Coal Production and Future Extraction Cost: A Tool for Formulating Policy on Coal Marketing

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