The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries

Abstract

Environmental factors are likely to affect human mobility in the form of migration, but the empirical evidence remains to be inconclusive. This research seeks to contribute shedding more light on this ambiguity: we examine whether and how environmental change leads to internal (i.e., domestic) migration at the individual level. It is argued that individual perceptions of different types of environmental change (sudden vs. gradual events) determine migration decisions in diverse ways. Empirically, the corresponding arguments are analyzed with new survey data, which have been collected in five developing countries and include both individuals who migrated and those who decided to stay. The results suggest that individual perceptions of long-term (gradual) environmental events, such as droughts, lower the likelihood of internal migration. However, there is some evidence that sudden-onset events, such as floods, increase the chances to move. These findings substantially improve our understanding of which type of environmental factors make individuals leave their homes, and they suggest that a more differentiated perspective on the issue of environmental migration based on adaptation is needed.

Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa: A systematic review of empirical evidence

“…Several studies point out that the nature of the environmental event determines the migration decision (van der Geest 2011b; Koubi et al 2016;Nguyen and Wodon 2014). The most frequent distinction is made between slow-onset and sudden-onset events.…”

“…Other authors such as Hummel (2016) use a three-month absence from the place of origin as a threshold. With regard to the spatial criteria, the threshold ranges from having left home (e.g., Ezra 2001), the village (e.g., Findley 1994), the district (e.g., Gray and Mueller 2012), or one's place of birth (which is not equivalent to the place of residence) (Koubi et al 2016). Some studies introduce additional criteria for the identification of migrants, such as whether absent members are still considered to belong to the household (e.g., Adoho and Wodon 2014), retain livelihood connections (Hunter et al 2017), or send remittances (Cattaneo and Massetti 2015).…”

Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011

“…For one, we consider changes in climatic conditions measured over multi-year periods, which is intended to capture the effect of gradual changes in conditions. Understanding whether migration is employed as a part of strategies to adapt to slow-onset, long-term changes can add to emerging evidence regarding adaptation to long-term environmental change (versus short-term fluctuations) (Burke & Emerick, forthcoming; Koubi et al, 2016; Seo & Mendelsohn, 2008). Additionally, we examine the effect of exposure to repeated or prolonged climatic extremes.…”

Environmental influences on skilled worker migration from Bangladesh to Canada

“…For example, more needs to be known about exactly how environmental risks are perceived by individuals and households and, once this happens, how such perceptions figure into decision‐making processes. Recent research by Koubi et al () suggests different types of environmental risks are perceived differently and stimulate different types of action; sudden‐onset events like hurricanes and floods prompt people to act or move when threatened, but slower‐developing problems like land degradation or droughts are associated with a similar slowness in perception and action by households. There is also room for more research on the threshold (in terms of severity) at which environmental factors become relevant to migration decision making.…”