Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011

Thiede, Brian C.; Gray, Clark; Mueller, Valerie

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.005

Cited by 130 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 77 publications

(109 reference statements)

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“…We only observe a positive and statistically significant effect on the migration of women to a provincial capital. The tendency of women to migrate in response to temperature variability is consistent with recent evidence in South America (Thiede, Gray, and Mueller 2016). Women may be used to diversify risk, if the opportunity cost of having an absent young male member of the household exceeds that of a young female member.…”

Section: Identificationsupporting

confidence: 82%

Heat Exposure and Youth Migration in Central America and the Caribbean

Báez

Caruso

Mueller

et al. 2017

American Economic Review

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We employ a triple difference-in-difference approach, using censuses and georeferenced temperature data, to quantify heat effects on internal migration in Central America and the Caribbean. A 1-standard deviation increase in heat would affect the lives of 7,314 and 1,578 unskilled young women and men. The effect is smaller than observed in response to droughts and hurricanes but could increase with climate change. Interestingly, youth facing heat waves are more likely to move to urban centers than when exposed to disasters endemic to the region. Research identifying the implications of these choices and interventions available to minimize distress migration is warranted.

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Section: Identificationsupporting

confidence: 82%

Heat Exposure and Youth Migration in Central America and the Caribbean

Báez

Caruso

Mueller

et al. 2017

American Economic Review

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“…A recent work analyzes migration patterns due to climate change from rural to urban areas in six countries of South America [74]. The paper employs a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climatic shocks.…”

Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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This paper proposes a selective review of the classical economics-based literature on climate change and migration, focusing on the extent to which agriculture might be considered a key mediating channel linking climate change to migration. Overall, climate change is expected to have large and negative effects on the global economy. These effects are even more evident whenever the economic sector considered is the agricultural one, particularly in developing countries. Hence, migration can be viewed as a specific form of adaptation implemented by individuals and households, enabling them to cope, among other things, with weather-induced risk. We show that the importance of agriculture emerges from both plenty of micro-level country studies and relatively few macro-level analyses using cross-sectional data over longer time periods. Thus, policy actions targeted to sustainable agriculture and rural development can both help tackle the challenges posed by climate change and create opportunities in the face of growing migration issues. However, we also stress that much of the current evidence is based on statistical associations that have nothing to do with causal inferences. This calls for the use of a more structural approach and more sophisticated research designs, enabling the researchers to better discriminate among different mechanisms concurrently at work. In addition, further research should be addressed to the role played by food security, a complex dimension largely missing in the current debates on climate change and migration.

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“…Changes in climate are heavily impacting both natural and developed areas in Central and South America [1][2][3]. Over the past five decades, climatic phenomena have been responsible for 88 percent of disasters, globally [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Dry Forest Diversity, Climatic Response, and Resilience in a Changing Climate

Stan

Sánchez‐Azofeifa

2019

Forests

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Central and South America tropical dry forest (TDF) is a water-limited biome with a high number of endemic species and numerous ecosystem services which has experienced a boom in research in the last decade. Although the number of case studies across these seasonal, water-limited, tropical forests has increased, there has not been a comprehensive review to assess the physiological variability of this biome across the continent and assess how these forests respond to climatic variables. Additionally, understanding forest change and resilience under climatic variability, currently and in the future, is essential for assessing the future extent and health of forests in the future. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to provide a literature review on the variability of TDF diversity and structure across a latitudinal gradient and to assess how these components respond to differences in climatic variables across this geographic area. We first assess the current state of understanding of the structure, biomass, phenological cycles, and successional stages across the latitudinal gradient. We subsequently review the response of these five areas to differences in precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events, such as droughts and hurricanes. We find that there is a range of adaptability to precipitation, with many areas exhibiting drought tolerance except under the most extreme circumstances, while being susceptible to damage from increased extreme precipitation events. Finally, we use this climatic response to provide a commentary on the projected resilience of TDFs under climatic changes, finding a likelihood of resilience under drying scenarios, although model projections do not agree on the magnitude or direction of precipitation change. This review of quantitative studies will provide more concrete details on the current diversity that encompasses the TDF, the natural climatic ranges under which this ecosystem can survive and thrive, and can help inform future forest management practices under climate change scenarios.

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Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011

Cited by 130 publications

References 77 publications

Heat Exposure and Youth Migration in Central America and the Caribbean

Heat Exposure and Youth Migration in Central America and the Caribbean

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

Tropical Dry Forest Diversity, Climatic Response, and Resilience in a Changing Climate

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