Land-use change occurs nowhere more rapidly than in the tropics, where the imbalance between deforestation and forest regrowth has large consequences for the global carbon cycle. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the rate of biomass recovery in secondary forests, and how these rates are influenced by climate, landscape, and prior land use. Here we analyse aboveground biomass recovery during secondary succession in 45 forest sites and about 1,500 forest plots covering the major environmental gradients in the Neotropics. The studied secondary forests are highly productive and resilient. Aboveground biomass recovery after 20 years was on average 122 megagrams per hectare (Mg ha(-1)), corresponding to a net carbon uptake of 3.05 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), 11 times the uptake rate of old-growth forests. Aboveground biomass stocks took a median time of 66 years to recover to 90% of old-growth values. Aboveground biomass recovery after 20 years varied 11.3-fold (from 20 to 225 Mg ha(-1)) across sites, and this recovery increased with water availability (higher local rainfall and lower climatic water deficit). We present a biomass recovery map of Latin America, which illustrates geographical and climatic variation in carbon sequestration potential during forest regrowth. The map will support policies to minimize forest loss in areas where biomass resilience is naturally low (such as seasonally dry forest regions) and promote forest regeneration and restoration in humid tropical lowland areas with high biomass resilience.

Global efforts to reduce tropical deforestation rely heavily on the establishment of protected areas. Measuring the effectiveness of these areas is difficult because the amount of deforestation that would have occurred in the absence of legal protection cannot be directly observed. Conventional methods of evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas can be biased because protection is not randomly assigned and because protection can induce deforestation spillovers (displacement) to neighboring forests. We demonstrate that estimates of effectiveness can be substantially improved by controlling for biases along dimensions that are observable, measuring spatial spillovers, and testing the sensitivity of estimates to potential hidden biases. We apply matching methods to evaluate the impact on deforestation of Costa Rica's renowned protected-area system between 1960 and 1997. We find that protection reduced deforestation: approximately 10% of the protected forests would have been deforested had they not been protected. Conventional approaches to evaluating conservation impact, which fail to control for observable covariates correlated with both protection and deforestation, substantially overestimate avoided deforestation (by over 65%, based on our estimates). We also find that deforestation spillovers from protected to unprotected forests are negligible. Our conclusions are robust to potential hidden bias, as well as to changes in modeling assumptions. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical methods, conservation scientists and policy makers can better understand the relationships between human and natural systems and can use this to guide their attempts to protect critical ecosystem services.avoided deforestation ͉ conservation policy ͉ empirical evaluation ͉ spatial spillovers

Models reveal the high carbon mitigation potential of tropical forest regeneration.

Initiated in 1984, the Committee Earth Observing Satellites' Working Group on Calibration and Validation (CEOS WGCV) pursues activities to coordinate, standardize and advance calibration and validation of civilian satellites and their data. One subgroup of CEOS WGCV, Land Product Validation (LPV), was established in 2000 to define standard validation guidelines and protocols and to foster data and information exchange relevant to the validation of land products. Since then, a number of leaf area index (LAI) products have become available to the science com-

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We investigated changes in species composition and structure of tree and liana communities along a successional gradient in a seasonally dry tropical forest. There was a progressive increase in tree richness and all tree structural traits from early to late stages, as well as marked changes in tree species composition and dominance. This pattern is probably related to pasture management practices such as ploughing, which remove tree roots and preclude regeneration by resprouting. On the other hand, liana density decreased from intermediate to late stages, showing a negative correlation with tree density. The higher liana abundance in intermediate stage is probably due to a balanced availability of support and light availability, since these variables may show opposite trends during forest growth. Predicted succession models may represent extremes in a continuum of possible successional pathways strongly influenced by land use history, climate, soil type, and by the outcomes of tree-liana interactions.

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