Environmental factors are likely to affect human mobility in the form of migration, but the empirical evidence remains to be inconclusive. This research seeks to contribute shedding more light on this ambiguity: we examine whether and how environmental change leads to internal (i.e., domestic) migration at the individual level. It is argued that individual perceptions of different types of environmental change (sudden vs. gradual events) determine migration decisions in diverse ways. Empirically, the corresponding arguments are analyzed with new survey data, which have been collected in five developing countries and include both individuals who migrated and those who decided to stay. The results suggest that individual perceptions of long-term (gradual) environmental events, such as droughts, lower the likelihood of internal migration. However, there is some evidence that sudden-onset events, such as floods, increase the chances to move. These findings substantially improve our understanding of which type of environmental factors make individuals leave their homes, and they suggest that a more differentiated perspective on the issue of environmental migration based on adaptation is needed.
Migration is likely to be a key factor linking climate change and conflict. However, our understanding of the factors behind and consequences of migration is surprisingly limited. We take this shortcoming as a motivation for our research and study the relationship between environmental migration and conflict at the micro level. In particular, we focus on environmental migrants' conflict perceptions to shed new theoretical and empirical light on this debate. We contend that variation in migrants' conflict perception can be explained by the type of environmental event people experienced in their former home, i.e., gradual, long-term or sudden onset, short-term environmental changes. We examine and further develop this argument before quantitatively analyzing newly collected micro-level data on intra-state migration from five developing countries. The results emphasize that migrants who suffered from gradual, long-term environmental events in their former homes are more likely to perceive conflict in their new location than those having experienced sudden, short-term environmental events. These findings are therefore in line with our theoretical argument that environmental migrants who suffer to a large degree from environmentally induced grievances, are ultimately more likely to perceive conflict and challenges in their new homes.
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