The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand

Staffell, Iain; Pfenninger, Stefan

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.12.051

Cited by 242 publications

(132 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…25,26 Meanwhile, energy systems analyses have become more sophisticated in identifying the complexity of decarbonising heat and transport via full electrification, and thus the need for a flexible and storable energy vectors. [27][28][29][30] Thirteen international corporations recently formed the Hydrogen Council ''to position hydrogen among the key solutions of the energy transition''. 6 Doing so involves challenges around its complexity and diversity:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in the global energy system

Staffell

Scamman

Abad

et al. 2019

Energy Environ. Sci.

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2,601

1,310

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Hydrogen technologies have experienced cycles of excessive expectations followed by disillusion. Nonetheless, a growing body of evidence suggests these technologies form an attractive option for the deep decarbonisation of global energy systems, and that recent improvements in their cost and performance point towards economic viability as well. This paper is a comprehensive review of the potential role that hydrogen could play in the provision of electricity, heat, industry, transport and energy storage in a low-carbon energy system, and an assessment of the status of hydrogen in being able to fulfil that potential. The picture that emerges is one of qualified promise: hydrogen is well established in certain niches such as forklift trucks, while mainstream applications are now forthcoming.Hydrogen vehicles are available commercially in several countries, and 225 000 fuel cell home heating systems have been sold. This represents a step change from the situation of only five years ago. This review shows that challenges around cost and performance remain, and considerable improvements are still required for hydrogen to become truly competitive. But such competitiveness in the medium-term future no longer seems an unrealistic prospect, which fully justifies the growing interest and policy support for these technologies around the world. Broader contextHydrogen and fuel cells have arguably suffered a 'lost decade' after high expectations in the 2000s failed to materialise. Three factors are enabling the sector to regain momentum. Firstly, improvements in technology and manufacturing mean that systems which cost $60 000 in 2005 are now cost $10 000. Secondly, commercial products are becoming widely available, and significant uptake is occurring in specific sectors such as Japanese microgeneration and US forklift trucks. Thirdly, a strengthened global resolve to mitigate climate change is coupled with increasing realisation that clean power alone is insufficient, due to the complexity of decarbonising heat and transport. This paper provides a comprehensive state-of-the-art update on hydrogen and fuel cells across transport, heat, industry, electricity generation and storage, spanning the technologies, economics, infrastructure requirements and government policies. It defines the many roles that these technologies can play in the near future, as a flexible and versatile complement to electricity, and in offering end-users more choice over how to decarbonise the energy services they rely on. While there are strong grounds for believing that hydrogen and fuel cells can experience a cost and performance trajectory similar to those of solar PV and batteries, several challenges must still be overcome for hydrogen and fuel cells to finally live up to their potential.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in the global energy system

Staffell

Scamman

Abad

et al. 2019

Energy Environ. Sci.

Self Cite

2,601

1,310

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Extreme weather conditions have significant impacts on a number of industries and markets around the world (Subak et al, 2000;Lazo et al, 2011). The energy sector is arguably among the most strongly affected (White et al, 2017;Staffell and Pfenninger, 2018). Both the supply of and the demand for energy are influenced by weather; therefore prices on energy markets (for electricity, natural gas, coal and oil, for example) are strongly weather dependent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric modulation of the large‐scale circulation in the Atlantic–European region and its implications for surface weather events

Beerli

Grams

2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex can have long‐lasting impacts on extratropical circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This provides windows of subseasonal predictability beyond the typical weather forecast horizon of about 10 days. Subseasonal forecasts of surface weather are of significant interest in weather‐dependent socio‐economic sectors. For example, demand and supply for electricity and gas are weather dependent and therefore accurate forecasts are important for the energy industry and energy trading. Here we investigate the subseasonal impact of stratospheric conditions on surface weather events relevant to the energy industry in five subregions of Europe in winter. We use a definition of seven Atlantic–European weather regimes to describe the variability of the large‐scale circulation on subseasonal time scales. Results indicate that weather events are often associated with more than one preferred weather regime. In turn, some weather regimes project onto a specific NAO phase, while others are independent of the NAO. As expected, anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states predominantly modulate the occurrence of regimes related to the NAO and affect the likelihood of their associated weather events. In contrast, the occurrence of weather regimes which do not project well onto the NAO is not affected by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states. These regimes provide pathways to unexpected weather events in extreme stratospheric polar vortex states. For example, weak stratospheric polar vortex states enhance the likelihood of negative NAO. High wind events in Central Europe predominantly occur during the zonal regime, strongly projecting onto positive NAO. However, these events also occur during the Atlantic trough regime, which is unaffected by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states and thus provides a pathway to Central European high wind events during weak stratospheric polar vortex states. A correct NAO prediction alone is therefore not sufficient to correctly predict surface weather after extreme stratospheric polar vortex states. Moreover, weather regime life cycles independent of the NAO also need to be forecast accurately.

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“…They determine the cost-optimal mix of heating technologies and find that heat pumps become more cost-competitive for all the temperature-increase scenarios. Staffell and Pfenninger [14] show that electricity supply and demand are becoming increasingly weather-dependent, due to higher penetrations of renewable and the rise of heat electrification.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

et al. 2020

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To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 • C, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation modelling with high spatial and temporal resolution. This approach relies on a number of climatic, technical and economic predictions that reach multiple decades into the future. In this paper, we investigate how the design of a fossil-free energy system for Europe is affected by changes in these assumptions. In particular, the synergy among renewable generators, power-toheat converters, storage units, synthetic gas and transmission manage to deliver an affordable net-zero emissions system. We find that levelised cost of energy decreases due to heat savings, but not for global temperature increases. In both cases, heat pumps become less favourable as surplus electricity is more abundant for heating. Demand-side management through buildings' thermal inertia could shape the heating demand, yet has modest impact on the system configuration. Cost reductions of heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. Cheaper power-to-gas could lower the need for thermal energy storage.

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The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand

Cited by 242 publications

References 59 publications

The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in the global energy system

The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in the global energy system

Stratospheric modulation of the large‐scale circulation in the Atlantic–European region and its implications for surface weather events

Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

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