SummaryAs wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe’s electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2–5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe’s wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour – specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea – would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

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This study highlights the importance of diabatic processes for the complex interaction of weather systems in the North Atlantic-European sector during the week of 7-14 September 2008. A chain of events occurred including the extratropical transition (ET) of hurricane Hanna, a subsequently developing extratropical cyclone, the formation of an upper-level potential vorticity (PV) streamer that protruded towards Europe and triggered intense rainfall, and the genesis of a Mediterranean cyclone. A PV perspective is adopted along with trajectory calculations to elucidate the diabatic modification of the midlatitude flow.Important diabatic PV modifications occurred at upper levels, associated with the cross-isentropic transport of low-PV air within warm conveyor belts (WCBs). These were diagnosed during the ET of Hanna and the development of the extratropical cyclone near Newfoundland. The WCBs contributed to the amplification of ridges downstream of each cyclone and to the subsequent elongation of Hanna's upstream trough into a PV streamer. This streamer eventually triggered the Mediterranean cyclogenesis. The second major effect of the diabatic processes occurred on smaller scales, in the low and middle troposphere. The remnants of Hanna's tropical PV core advected moist air towards the baroclinic zone leading to condensational PV production in the lower troposphere. In contrast, in the case of the extratropical cyclone, diabatic PV production occurred within its WCB at mid levels. These diagnostic analyses corroborate the potential of diabatic processes associated with extratropical flow systems for the modification of both the low-level vortices and the upper-level Rossby wave guide.

The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) explored the impact of diabatic processes on disturbances of the jet stream and their influence on downstream high-impact weather through the deployment of four research aircraft, each with a sophisticated set of remote sensing and in situ instruments, and coordinated with a suite of ground-based measurements. A total of 49 research flights were performed, including, for the first time, coordinated flights of the four aircraft: the German High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO), the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Dassault Falcon 20, the French Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement (SAFIRE) Falcon 20, and the British Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146. The observation period from 17 September to 22 October 2016 with frequently occurring extratropical and tropical cyclones was ideal for investigating midlatitude weather over the North Atlantic. NAWDEX featured three sequences of upstream triggers of waveguide disturbances, as well as their dynamic interaction with the jet stream, subsequent development, and eventual downstream weather impact on Europe. Examples are presented to highlight the wealth of phenomena that were sampled, the comprehensive coverage, and the multifaceted nature of the measurements. This unique dataset forms the basis for future case studies and detailed evaluations of weather and climate predictions to improve our understanding of diabatic influences on Rossby waves and the downstream impacts of weather systems affecting Europe.

This paper introduces a newly compiled set of feature-based climatologies identified from ERA-Interim (1979–2014). Two categories of flow features are considered: (i) Eulerian climatologies of jet streams, tropopause folds, surface fronts, cyclones and anticyclones, blocks, and potential vorticity streamers and cutoffs and (ii) Lagrangian climatologies, based on a large ensemble of air parcel trajectories, of stratosphere–troposphere exchange, warm conveyor belts, and tropical moisture exports. Monthly means of these feature climatologies are openly available at the ETH Zürich web page (http://eraiclim.ethz.ch) and are annually updated. Datasets at higher resolution can be obtained from the authors on request. These feature climatologies allow studying the frequency, variability, and trend of atmospheric phenomena and their interrelationships across temporal scales. To illustrate the potential of this dataset, boreal winter climatologies of selected features are presented and, as a first application, the very unusual Northern Hemispheric winter of 2009/10 is identified as the season when most of the considered features show maximum deviations from climatology. The second application considers dry winters in the western United States and reveals fairly localized anomalies in the eastern North Pacific of enhanced blocking and surface anticyclones and reduced cyclones.

Despite huge progress made, state‐of‐the‐art numerical weather prediction systems occasionally experience severe forecast busts for the large‐scale extratropical circulation. This study investigates one of the most severe forecast busts for Europe in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts integrated forecasting system (IFS) in recent years. The forecast bust occurred in March 2016 and was associated with a misforecast of the onset of a blocking regime. We investigate the evolution of the forecast error in the IFS ensemble by employing a potential vorticity perspective combined with Lagrangian diagnostics. We show that the error grows rapidly from an initially small perturbation in the detailed structure of an upper‐level trough near Newfoundland. This trough triggers strong diabatic warm conveyor belt activity in the North Atlantic region. The misrepresentation of this warm conveyor belt activity in the ensemble forecast amplifies the initial condition error and communicates it downstream into Europe. Specifically, the ensemble underestimates poleward warm conveyor belt ascent and associated warm conveyor belt outflow into high latitudes. Instead, all ensemble members forecast too strong warm conveyor belt outflow further to the south, which ultimately results in a wrong forecast of the upper‐level Rossby wave pattern over Europe. This case study shows that warm conveyor belts and the associated latent heat release in slantwise ascending air can trigger a nonlinear feedback mechanism that amplifies forecast error strongly and communicates it into regions far downstream. It corroborates the fact that multiscale interactions and moist‐and dry‐dynamical processes ranging from microphysical to synoptic scales need to be represented accurately in numerical weather prediction, in order to predict the extratropical large‐scale circulation correctly.

[1] In situ observations from a flight made during the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Intercomparison of Longwave and Shortwave Radiation (GERBILS) field campaign (June 2007) show significant dust uplift into the monsoon flow immediately south of the intertropical discontinuity in the western Sahara. Dust loadings were highest in the moist monsoon air and the observations are consistent with dust uplift by the nocturnal monsoon winds. There is some evidence that cold pools within the monsoon flow contributed to the dust uplift: regions of elevated dust, water vapor, and ozone within the monsoon air are consistent with precipitation cooling and moistening air from upper levels and the resultant dusty cold pools propagating northward. However, only southward propagating cold pool outflows could be observed in satellite imagery. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses and satellite data, it is shown that the asymmetry in the seasonal dust cycle is closely related to the downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE) from convective storms. There is both more dust and more DCAPE during monsoon onset than during retreat. The larger DCAPE values during monsoon onset, as well as the stronger nocturnal monsoon flow and the stronger heat trough circulation, are expected to contribute to the higher dust loadings at this time. Both the monsoon flow and cold pool outflows within it result in dust uplift in the western Sahara during the monsoon onset, which is when the maximum dust uplift occurs. For dust modeling, this shows the importance of accurately modeling not only the monsoon flow itself but also deep convection and cold pools.

Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ET in reanalysis, observational, and model-forecast datasets are discussed. New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, modeling the direct impacts of ET-related wind, waves, and precipitation are noted. Improved understanding of structural evolution throughout the transformation stage of ET fostered in large part by novel aircraft observations collected in several recent ET events is highlighted. Predictive skill for operational and numerical model ET-related forecasts is discussed along with environmental factors influencing posttransition cyclone structure and evolution. Operational ET forecast and analysis practices and challenges are detailed. In particular, some challenges of effective hazard communication for the evolving threats posed by a tropical cyclone during and after transition are introduced. This review concludes with recommendations for future work to further improve understanding, forecasts, and hazard communication.