The statistical relationship between the leading climate patterns of mid-tropospheric flow and atmospheric blocking over the Euro-Atlantic region during winter is investigated using three new two-dimensional blocking indicators. The focus is on the leading climate pattern of the 500-hPa geopotential variability, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results indicate that the blocking-NAO relation is not restricted to the North Atlantic region, where blocking and the NAO are known to be out of phase. All three indicators show that the positive NAO phase is characterised by an enhanced occurrence of blocking-type high-pressure systems over the European mainland. The sign change of the NAO-blocking relation from west to east is well detectable with the two-dimensional blocking indicators and it is found further south than at the traditionally studied blocking latitudes near 60°N. The analysis of blocking events by seasonal NAO indices leads to similar (albeit less significant) results as with a daily NAO index stratification. This indicates that the relation between the NAO and blocking is fairly insensitive to the chosen time resolution.The investigation is extended from the second to fourth pattern of the mid-tropospheric flow variability using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns. It reveals that one phase of each of the major Euro-Atlantic climate patterns is collocated with the region of maximum blocking frequency. The clearest separation between positive (negative) EOF phases and blocking (no blocking) situations is found for EOF × 2 and 3 and is associated with changes from zonal to ridge-like flow, similar to the so-called northern European 'blocking signature'. This is an indication that the purely statistically defined EOF patterns are related to the physical blocking phenomenon.

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[1] A novel dynamically-based approach is introduced to identify, describe and diagnose atmospheric blocking events. The approach is based upon the potential vorticity perspective and takes into account the threedimensional structure of the phenomenon. It is argued that the essence of a blocking anomaly is located in the upper troposphere, just below the tropopause. The associated novel blocking indicators are derived from two-dimensional fields at 6-hourly temporal resolution, and provide information on the spatial scale, shape, amplitude and movement of blocks. A northern hemisphere winter (DJF) climatology for the ERA15 period (1979 -1993) is presented and comments are made on the relationship between the indicators and previous blocking indices. INDEX TERMS: 3309

North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European winter 6-hourly minimum temperatures from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model simulations and the ECMWF reanalysis product known as ERA-40, with an indicator for atmospheric blocking conditions being used as covariate. It is demonstrated that relating the location and scale parameter of the GEV distribution to atmospheric blocking improves the fit to extreme minimum temperatures in large areas of Europe. The climate model simulations agree reasonably with ERA-40 in the present climate (1961–2000). Under the influence of atmospheric blocking, a decrease in the 0.95th quantiles of extreme minimum temperatures can be distinguished. This cooling effect of atmospheric blocking is, however, diminished in future climate simulations because of a shift in blocking location, and thus reduces the chances of very cold winters in northeastern parts of Europe.

This paper introduces a newly compiled set of feature-based climatologies identified from ERA-Interim (1979–2014). Two categories of flow features are considered: (i) Eulerian climatologies of jet streams, tropopause folds, surface fronts, cyclones and anticyclones, blocks, and potential vorticity streamers and cutoffs and (ii) Lagrangian climatologies, based on a large ensemble of air parcel trajectories, of stratosphere–troposphere exchange, warm conveyor belts, and tropical moisture exports. Monthly means of these feature climatologies are openly available at the ETH Zürich web page (http://eraiclim.ethz.ch) and are annually updated. Datasets at higher resolution can be obtained from the authors on request. These feature climatologies allow studying the frequency, variability, and trend of atmospheric phenomena and their interrelationships across temporal scales. To illustrate the potential of this dataset, boreal winter climatologies of selected features are presented and, as a first application, the very unusual Northern Hemispheric winter of 2009/10 is identified as the season when most of the considered features show maximum deviations from climatology. The second application considers dry winters in the western United States and reveals fairly localized anomalies in the eastern North Pacific of enhanced blocking and surface anticyclones and reduced cyclones.

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A dynamically based climatology is derived for Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking events. Blocks are viewed as large amplitude, long-lasting, and negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies located beneath the dynamical tropopause. The derived climatology [based on the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40)] provides a concise, coherent, and illuminating description of the main physical characteristics of blocks and the accompanying linear trends. The latitude–longitude distribution of blocking frequency captures the standard bimodal geographical distribution with major peaks over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific in all four seasons. The accompanying pattern for the age distribution, the genesis–lysis regions, and the track of blocks reveals that 1) younger blocks (1–4 days) are more prevalent at lower latitudes whereas significantly older blocks (up to 12 days) are located at higher latitudes; 2) genesis is confined predominantly to the two major ocean basins and in a zonal band between 40° and 50°N latitude, whereas lysis is more dispersed but with clear preference to higher latitudes; and 3) the general northeastward–west-northwest movement of blocks in the genesis–lysis phase also exhibits subtle seasonal and intra- and interbasin differences. Examination of the intensity and spatial-scale changes during the blocking life cycle suggests that in the mean a block’s evolution is independent of the genesis region and its eventual duration. A novel analysis of blocking trends reveals significant negative trends in winter over Greenland and in spring over the North Pacific. It is shown that the changes over Greenland are linked to the number of blocking episodes, whereas a neighboring trend signal to the south is linked to higher-frequency anticyclonic systems. Furthermore, evidence is adduced that changes in blocking frequency contribute seminally to tropopause height trends.

[1] Atmospheric blocking plays an important role in the mid-latitude climate variability and can be responsible for anomalous mean and/or extreme climate. In this study, a potential vorticity based blocking indicator is used to investigate the representation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking events in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The impact of blocking events on present and future mean and extreme climate is studied by means of composite maps and correlation analyses. In comparison to ERA-40 reanalysis, the model represents the blocking frequency and seasonal distribution well. We show that European blocking events have a sustained influence particularly on anomalous cold winter temperatures in Europe. In a future climate, the blocking frequency is slightly diminished but the influence on the European winter climate remains robust. Due to a northeastward shift of the blocking pattern and an increase in maximum blocking duration, cold winter temperature extremes can still be expected in a future climate. Citation: Sillmann, J., and M. Croci-Maspoli (2009), Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean and extreme climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10702,