The Illusion of Electoral Stability: From Party System Erosion to Right-Wing Populism in Brazil

Abstract

Although comparative research has relied heavily on electoral volatility as a proxy for party system institutionalisation (PSI), this measure cannot account for the patterns of interparty interactions that are key to determine the degree of party system stability. I develop a new measure – the party bloc volatility (PBV) index – to account for consistency in the ideological positions and in the partisan composition of the government and opposition blocs. I demonstrate the limitations of the index of electoral volatility by analysing the case of Brazil. Although electoral volatility substantially decreased between 1994 and 2010, the patterns of interparty alliances became less and less predictable from 2002 onwards, as party fragmentation increased while interparty ideological differences decreased. In combination with a major economic and political crisis, these trends led to the discrediting of the established parties and thus favoured the rise of the extreme right in the 2018 elections.

Between Renewal and Stability: Party System Change from a Multi‐Level Perspective in Brazil (1998–2018)

“…Figure 1 is a boxplot comparing the number of effective parties, that is, the ENEP's rates between the races for the national Chamber of Deputies and the state's assemblies in the past six elections. It demonstrates that the ENEP has steadily increased in Brazil at both levels of government, which contributes to the literature's evidence of party system fragmentation (Braga, 2016; Nascimento, 2018; Peres, Conceição, and Tarouco, 2018; Borges, 2021). It is worth noting, however, that median ENEP values are higher for sub‐national elections than for their national counterparts in all cases.…”

Multi-level legislative representation in an inchoate party system: Mass-elite ideological congruence in Brazil

“…Figure 3 plots the results of a model, including all the data and several covariates relating to deputies, voters, and pairs. (Borges, 2021). For deputies, we also estimate the effects of education, income, and office (i.e., whether she is a national or state deputy).…”

A política e a economia do governo Bolsonaro: uma análise sobre a captura do orçamento

“…O presidente Bolsonaro foi eleito, em parte, com um discurso apoiado na antipolítica e na criminalização de negociações políticas tradicionais, denominador comum ao populismo de extrema-direita (Borges, 2021). Com efeito, já antes de 2020, da pandemia, o governo não conseguia estabelecer uma articulação (o que veremos abaixo na análise política) e propor uma agenda.…”